Nigeria's Hopes for Democracy
Forthcoming elections pose a great challenge to Nigeria's Fourth Republic.
June 2002
Left to right: Richard Joseph, Rotimi Suberu, and Larry Diamond
Since Nigeria became independent of Great Britain in 1960, it has experienced more than twice as many years of military rule as civilian rule.
The most repressive government was led by General Sani Abacha from 1993 until his sudden death in 1998. Although the 1999 presidential elections were sharply criticized for their many irregularities, the announced winner, Olusegun Obasanjo, became president with widespread support at home and abroad. In the past, elections conducted under the auspices of civilian governments have tended to weaken rather than strengthen the Nigerian polity, thereby facilitating military seizures of power. Consequently, high stakes are riding on the local elections scheduled for August 2002, to be followed by state and federal contests in 2003. Will these elections finally provide firm footing for Nigeria's Fourth Republic?
At a U.S. Institute of Peace Current Issues Briefing on May 20, Larry Diamond, senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution; Richard Joseph, senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace; and Rotimi Suberu, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria, and former senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, addressed the topic "Nigeria's Federal Democracy: Will It Survive?" With Joseph moderating, the three scholars explored the overlapping themes of Nigeria's democratic experiment and the country's centralized federal structure, as detailed in Suberu's book Federalism and Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria (U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 2001).
From 1984 to 1999, Nigeria suffered under military rule characterized by uncertainty, corruption, and excessive centralization of wealth and power. Diamond described this last military regime as "murderous" and "plundering"—"one of the most destructive military regimes, I think, anywhere." After a honeymoon period, the civilian government that took power in 1999 has increasingly been criticized for mismanagement and corruption. Under this government, there has been a steady succession of ethnic, regional, and religious conflicts.
One of the world's most ethnically diverse countries, Nigeria has three major ethnic groups: Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo. There are deepening cleavages between these groups, between north and south, and between Muslims and Christians. In 1986, while under the rule of General Ibrahim Babangida, Nigeria joined (temporarily) the Organization of the Islamic Conference. Since then, political tensions between Muslims and Christians have increased and contributed to communal conflicts. A dozen states in Nigeria's north have extended Islamic law (Sharia) from civil to criminal matters. "Several floggings and a number of amputations have been carried out," Suberu stated in his Institute talk. This imposition of Sharia has exacerbated Muslim-Christian strife. Since the end of military rule in 1999, thousands of Nigerians have died in ethnic, regional, and religious fighting. The hope that the return to constitutional democracy would yield a "peace dividend" has therefore been unfulfilled.
Nigeria also is beset by economic problems, including a substantial national debt, high unemployment, double-digit inflation, and a lack of product diversification. About 80 percent of government revenues come from oil exports. Although the Niger Delta is Nigeria's oil-producing region, most of its residents are poor. "Living standards haven't significantly improved" under the present government, Suberu commented. Much of Nigeria lacks "basic public social services." In particular, the needs of ethnic minorities tend to be ignored. Nigeria's public enterprises are "notoriously inefficient," Suberu said. The government has spent "vast amounts" of money on proj-ects that international financial institutions consider low-priority or unviable.
To a large extent, Nigeria's problems are related to weak institutions, the panelists agreed. "Creating political institutions that work as intended is perhaps the fundamental issue in Africa today," Joseph argued. Nigeria is in a state of "broad institutional ruination," Suberu remarked. The panelists believe that financial resources are too concentrated in the federal government; state and local governments need more fiscal and political autonomy. Having virtually exclusive control over arms, the police, and elections, the federal government can "intervene in practically every matter of public importance," Suberu states in Federalism and Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria. The panelists think that the judiciary, too, must be strengthened and afforded greater independence. Under civilian, as well as military, regimes, the country's executive has controlled the funding of the judiciary and the appointment of judges.
Nigeria's institutional problems stem partly from its constitution, which Diamond called "seriously inadequate." In his book, Suberu proposes innovative constitutional reforms; he calls for a new constitution to be drafted and, for the first time in Nigeria's history, ratified in a popular referendum. He and Diamond advocate constitutional protections against overweening federal government. The constitution they envision would create a more independent, less politically partisan judiciary. It also would allocate more resources and power to Nigeria's states, which would be empowered to create their own systems of local administration and to levy taxes (such as business and value-added taxes) that now are exclusively federal. Suberu recommends limiting federal power primarily to national matters such as citizenship laws, currency, macroeconomic management, customs, international relations, and defense.
As for Nigeria's elections, they have been "corrupt, violent, and chaotic," Suberu states in his book. "The endemic failure of the electoral process is perhaps the most urgent threat to the country's federal democratic political development." Nigeria never has had two consecutive elected governments. "In democracies, the system renews itself through the electoral process," Joseph noted. This never has occurred in Nigeria. Under each of the preceding republics, elections have set the stage for the system's collapse instead of bringing about its renewal. Nigeria's forthcoming elections may determine the country's form of government for many years to come. Diamond and Suberu urge international monitoring, improvements to the electoral machinery, and other safeguards.
