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June 2002
Vol. VIII, No.4
The Future of Montenegro
 Milo Djukanovic addresses a meeting of the Institute's Balkans Working Group. |
Following negotiations sponsored by the European Union (EU) in March, the remaining Yugoslav republics of Serbia and Montenegro agreed to form a new confederation called Serbia-Montenegro and end the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Brokered by EU high representative Javier Solana, the "Solana Agreement" was signed by Yugoslav president Vojislav Kostunica, Yugoslav deputy prime minister Miroljub Labus, Serbian prime minister Zoran Djindjic, Montenegrin prime minister Filip Vujanovic, and Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic.
While visiting the United States at the invitation of U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, Djukanovic came to the U.S. Institute of Peace on April 30 to address a meeting of the Balkans Working Group moderated by the Institute's Balkans Initiative director, Daniel Serwer. Having led Montenegro's participation in the negotiations, Djukanovic spoke on "The Future of Montenegro" in light of the Solana Agreement.
"I am a continuing advocate of the idea of independence," Djukanovic stated. At the start of the negotiations, Montenegro and Serbia were "diametrically opposed," he said. The resulting agreement is a "compromise" between Serbia's desire that the two republics stay in a federation and Montenegro's desire that the two be independent.
According to the Solana Agreement, the parliaments of the FRY, Serbia, and Montenegro will begin debating the terms of the new arrangement by June 2002. After their deliberations, the parliaments will delegate a commission to draft the new union's constitutional charter. The parliaments of Montenegro and Serbia and then the FRY's parliament must approve this charter. Once the charter has been ratified, elections will determine the composition of a unicameral parliament representing Montenegro and Serbia.
This parliament will elect the union's president. In turn, the president will nominate and direct a Council of Ministers that will oversee five departments: foreign affairs, international economic relations, internal economic relations, the "protection of human and minority rights," and defense. The presidents of the confederation, Montenegro, and Serbia will constitute a Supreme Defense Council that will command the union's army. Any military action will require a consensus among the three presidents. Djukanovic noted that he would like to see a streamlining of the army, as well as strengthened safeguards to keep it under civilian, democratic control.
The Solana Agreement specifies a democratic process of peaceably dissolving the confederation. After the union has been in effect for three years, Montenegro and Serbia may each hold a referendum to determine whether or not they will become independent. Among voters in Montenegro's April 2001 parliamentary elections, 55 percent favored Montenegrin independence.
Djukanovic emphasized that a desire for independence does not signify a desire to eliminate ethnic diversity. In fact, support for Montenegrin independence is especially strong among Montenegro's ethnic Albanians, who constitute about 7 percent of its population.
In Djukanovic's view, a union of Serbia and Montenegro encourages policies that are "intrinsically anti-reformist and anti-democratic." Nevertheless, he considers the Solana Agreement a framework within which Montenegro can continue to pursue its democratic and economic reforms. An advocate of multi-ethnic democracy, he affirmed Montenegro's commitment to giving ethnic Albanians greater government representation, protecting the rights of Montenegro's minorities, and assisting the Hague tribunal in bringing war criminals to justice.
Djukanovic responded to tough questions regarding Montenegro's Albanian minority, freedom of the press, and organized crime. "Ten years ago we had a one-party system and a communist model of government," he said. Pressed on Albanian representation in parliament and in the public administration, he pledged respect and safeguards for the Albanian minority, including a guaranteed number of seats in parliament. He admitted that the Montenegrin press remains largely state-controlled and heavily influenced by partisan politics. However, Montenegro is drafting laws to combat the problem, such as a law to end state ownership of television networks.
To some extent, organized crime is another "byproduct" of the former communist system, Djukanovic commented. While pointing out that the trafficking of weapons and drugs is uncommon in Montenegro, he noted that the parliament recently enacted anti-corruption legislation aimed at reducing the influence of organized crime.
Djukanovic sees a free-market economy as a powerful force for political and social reform. The Solana Agreement calls for Montenegro and Serbia to have a common market but allows each state economic sovereignty. Djukanovic remarked that Montenegro and Serbia have different economic systems, with different currencies, central banks, customs authorities, taxes, tariffs, and foreign-trade systems. The agreement directs both states to bring their economic systems into harmony with that of the European Union—an approach that Djukanovic strongly favors. Seeking continued economic restructuring based on European and American models, he favors increased privatization, ecologically sustainable development, and a strategic partnership between Montenegro and the United States. In his Institute address, Djukanovic expressed gratitude for ongoing U.S. financial and political support, which he says has been crucial to Montenegro's recent "strides in economic reform, democratization, and respect for minority rights."
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