How Deep Is the Change?: 9/11 a Year On: October/December 2002 Issue: Peace Watch: U.S. Institute of Peace

"What has changed? How much of the change is in the world and how much is in us?" asked Brent Scowcroft, Forum for International Security and former national security adviser, opening the Institute's "9/11 a Year On" conference.

Before the events of September 2001, a pair of contradictory but related phenomena was occurring. One was globalization. The other was a breaking down into ever more intolerant political entities, including groups "seeking purity against the onslaught of alien forces." Scowcroft believes this combination of phenomena was an unexpected breeding ground for terrorism. "We didn't see it, partly because we tended to see terrorism as regional or a response to specific grievances."

Scowcroft said the greatest change is in the United States itself. The attacks were unexpected and Americans felt an unfamiliar vulnerability. The attackers were not another state, which confused existing ideas about warfare and deterrence. The suicidal component in particular is horrific and difficult to combat. However, Americans rallied. Flags were waved rather than burned. Firemen and policemen replaced Wall street tycoons as national heroes.

After September 11, there was a great coming together in the United States and in the world. However, this response is waning: beyond the East Coast, "9/11" no longer has its previous galvanizing effect, trans-Atlantic drift is again apparent, and friction over ongoing problems in such regions as South Asia, Korea, and the Middle East is growing.

Scowcroft pointed out that the second phase of the war on terrorism requires dramatically up-scaled intelligence—in both technology and human intelligence. It can only be won on the offensive, says Scowcroft. "Homeland security can reduce the impact of terrorism, but winning requires us to take the war to the terrorists."

Scowcroft is confident that the war on terrorism can be won, in the same way the war on organized crime can be won. "There will not be a treaty signed aboard the battleship Missouri, but we can break its back so that it is only a horrible nuisance and not a paralyzing influence on our societies."

But winning the war is not enough. We have to try to find new ways to reach out to those people who have not benefited from globalization. "We must learn to walk and chew gum at the same time."