Prospects for Peace in the Middle East: 9/11 a Year On: October/December 2002 Issue: Peace Watch: U.S. Institute of Peace

In the midst of continuing violence, donor fatigue, and numerous other impediments, hope for peace in the Middle East is still alive, says a panel of experts. Rita Hauser of the Hauser Foundation moderated the panel at the Institute's "9/11 a Year On" conference. The panel included Martin Indyk of the Brookings Institution, Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland, and Geoffrey Kemp of the Nixon Center.

Indyk cited four reasons for hope in spite of the seemingly hopeless situation between the Israelis and Palestinians. First, there is a sense of exhaustion and war-weariness on the part of the Palestinians. Second, this battle fatigue is shared by Israelis, as citizens express a growing willingness to make painful compromises to achieve peace and security. Third, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has political reasons for seeking peace to build a solid platform for re-election. Finally, the United States began more active engagement, shifting to what President Bush called a vision of a democratic Palestinian state living in peace alongside Israel.

While he agrees with Indyk on a number of issues, Telhami is less optimistic about the possibility of peace. He acknowledges a near-term opportunity for peaceful progress on some issues. However, he contends that the combination of past experience and present practicalities make real progress on most issues unlikely. Ongoing violence, perpetrated by both sides; poor Palestinian living conditions; and the psychological impacts of the conflict make peace an unfathomable concept to many.

Telhami stated that breakthroughs in peace processes occur most often due to courageous leadership rather than the fact that parties have learned from the past. He is not confident that the current leadership can or will make such a breakthrough, unless the United States gets involved.

The panel also considered the regional implications of this conflict. Kemp argued that Iraq and Iran have a vested interest in destroying the Arab-Israeli peace process, while the opposite is true for Saudi Arabia. Asked about war in Iraq, he said that a quick decisive campaign would not change the situation between Israel and the Palestinians but if the war goes badly it could destabilize the region, particularly Jordan.

All the panelists agreed that there is much work to be done to lay and re-lay the groundwork for peace. Trust between belligerents must be built before there is progress. The United States can play a role in building trust, as neither Sharon nor Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat can gain the trust of the other side alone. Also, the United States must recognize and prepare for the effect its actions in other parts of the region have on the peace process. Finally, the United States must pursue its relations in the region with caution and a careful strategy, being aware that even small mistakes can have large and negative implications.