October/December 2002
Vol. VIII, No.6/Vol. IX, No.1
Election Season in the Balkans
During the recent election season, a strong protest vote hurt moderates in Bosnia and Serbia, helped them in Macedonia and failed to unseat them in Montenegro. The voters seem to be protesting the lack of economic progress rather than returning to virulent nationalism.
A Balkans Working Group meeting on September 6 focused on "The Balkans Election Season: Intractable Problems, Persistent Nationalism." That meeting and subsequent post-election discussions yield the following conclusions. The fact that these elections occurred under relatively free and fair conditions sends a hopeful signal. In much of the region, however, nationalists hold the upper hand despite the declining threat of violence and increased attention to economic issues. Unfulfilled expectations fuel voter apathy and hostility to reform.
- In Bosnia, economic concerns surpass ethnic identification and nationalism, although the Bosnian Croat community still dreams of its own entity and nationalists remain dominant in Republika Srpska. Nationalist parties did better than Prime Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija predicted in a July appearance at the Institute, but a return to violence is not expected.
- Kosovo enjoyed some of the best-implemented elections in the region, marred by the post-election murder of Uke Bytygi, a mayor who had participated in Institute activities. The municipal institutions those elections are supposed to empower remain weak.
- The elections in Macedonia were deemed a success. They were "free and fair." Moderate Macedonian parties will govern with an Albanian party led by a former guerrilla leader. Challenges remain in meeting requirements of the peace agreement and responding to social and economic troubles.
- Having survived his decision to keep Montenegro at least temporarily within a common governing structure with Serbia, President Djukanovic's pro-independence coalition won an absolute majority in Parliament, where it will face major economic challenges.
- Many of Serbia's voters (approximately 25 percent of the population) are disheartened with politics, leading to an invalid presidential election because more than 50 percent of registered voters did not go to the polls. President Kostunica's appeal to national continuity and stability proved more reassuring to many voters than the plans of reformers, which have not produced visible gains in the short time since their implementation.
To help secure the still fragile peace in the Balkans, the international community can:
- Re-emphasize engagement and transition rather than exit strategies;
- Improve the rule of law, breaking nationalists' link to illegal sources of revenue and ending immunity for reformers;
- Strengthen self-governance, making elections a means of building up indigenous institutions with real power over policies that affect citizens' lives; and
- Encourage responsible, independent investigative journalism.
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