August 1998 
  Vol. IV, No. 5

Above: Supporters of Northern Ireland’s peace agreement celebrate after the winning “Yes” vote was announced in May.

he Northern Ireland peace process will likely endure despite violent opposition from minority groups that continue to struggle against it, say two experts at the University of Ulster. Paul Arthur, a professor of politics, and John Darby, a professor of ethnic studies, say that the movement toward peace in Northern Ireland—while still vulnerable to disruption—probably cannot now be stopped.

Arthur and Darby—specialists in track-two negotiations and ethnic conflict, respectively—have recently completed terms as senior fellows at the U.S. Institute of Peace. For their fellowship projects, Arthur analyzed track-one and track-two diplomacy in Anglo-Irish relations, and Darby worked on a comparative study of five peace processes, including the one in Northern Ireland.

Significance of the Agreement

The agreement also lays out a process for creating a new all-Ireland power-sharing body—the North-South Council—that will address cross-border issues between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and create a closer working relationship, in response to the Catholic desire for unity with the south. The peace agreement also provides for a new British-Irish Council, representing parliaments and assemblies in the two islands.

Arthur says that the symbolism of the referendum should not be underestimated. “This was the first time since 1918 that all the people of Ireland, north and south, voted on the same day on the same issue,” he said. “The peace agreement received genuine communal support. Instead of focusing on the wounds of the past, it allows us to be visionary for the first time since Northern Ireland was created in 1921.”

The Irish can now begin to think about building a new society in which they, like all modern peoples, can have many identities, not simply

Paul Arthur	John Darby

one—Catholic or Protestant, Arthur says. “We can follow a global phenomenon in which the great stress is on diversity and the richness of diversity.”

In a June election, voters in Northern Ireland chose an interim 108-member Northern Ireland Assembly, tasked with setting up the North-South Council.

Shortly after that election, during July when the Orange Order, a Protestant group, held marches commemorating the victory of Protestant King William III in the Battle of the Boyne (1690), three Catholic children were killed by a Protestant firebomber, raising the specter of further violence and a possible threat to the peace. Although so far both sides have responded to the tragedy with restraint, “violence creates its own dynamic and in that sense it is unpredictable,” Arthur says.

A number of unexploded retaliatory bombs were discovered in Britain and Ireland, probably because Irish Republicanism has too much vested in the peace process to let its fringe elements carry out terrorist attacks. “Government intelligence has certianly improved,” Darby says.

However, Arthur cautions, violence could erupt in the Catholic community if the security forces—the mostly Protestant Royal Ulster Constabulary and British troops—were to mishandle an incident. Catholics believe the security forces are against them and would be likely to perceive a misstep as an attack upon them.

Many Challenges Ahead

Among the many issues still to be dealt with are police reform, release of prisoners, the parameters of demonstrations and marches, the decommissioning of weapons held by paramilitary groups, and “a whole series of related hurdles,” Darby says. “Most peace processes break down or are dealt serious setbacks at some point along the way,” he cautions.

However, peace processes are organic and gather strength as they evolve, Darby says. For example, despite differences, the Catholic and Protestant members elected to the assembly will probably develop a sense of teamwork as they implement the peace agreement and create the North-South Council. “They do see themselves as custodians of the agreement,” Darby says.

However, Irish Republican Army breakaway groups still demanding a unified Ireland could launch a campaign of violence, Darby says. Indeed, he notes, at least one American Irish group has said it will funnel support to such groups.

On the Protestant side, the groups opposed to the peace were silenced by the grisly deaths of the three children. “It remains to be seen if the opposition forces can regroup themselves,” Darby says.

And finally, the 28 anti–peace agreement members elected to the assembly have vowed to sabotage its work. They need 30 signatures on a petition to launch an appeal for judicial review of any proposed measure. “The opposition can cause a fair amount of disruption,” Darby says. How successfully the assembly can do its job of creating a cabinet and instituting social reforms remains to be seen.

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