U.S. Institute of Peace Peace Watch Online

Bosnia in the Balkans

The survival of Bosnia and the democratization and development of the Balkans in general is profoundly important to the future of Europe.

Serbian riot police used batons, tear gas, and water cannons against thousands of ethnic Albanians who demonstrated March 2 in Kosovo’s capital Pristina to demand autonomy for the province and to protest police brutality the previous weekend.

he fate of each country in the Balkans is tied to the fate of its neighbors and to that of all of Europe, cautions Vaclav Havel, president of the Czech Republic. The Balkans—like Spain and Scandinavia—is now, and always has been, one political region with Europe. In this spirit, Europe needs to embrace the so-called post-communist countries of the area, he says. Havel addressed the U.S. Institute of Peace symposium on “Bosnia in the Balkans” on February 25 by teleconference.

The day-long symposium explored possibilities for regional cooperation in efforts to promote democracy, human rights, and economic, political, and social stability in the Balkan countries. Panel moderator James Hooper, director of the Balkan Institute, following Havel’s thrust, noted that “the greatest threat to democracy in Bosnia and the Balkans today . . . —and I wouldn’t exclude Macedonia or Bulgaria—is the indifference or, indeed, the defeatism of Western governments toward the outcome of the democratic struggle there.”

Harriet Hentges, Institute executive vice president and head of its Bosnia in the Balkans initiative, noted that support for the growth of democracy in the Balkans is key to stability in the region. The international community has the chance now, she said, “to support emerging leaders . . . and to create and facilitate opportunities for [them] to know each other, to identify areas for cooperation and collaboration, and to enable them to learn from each other’s experiences” in their struggle to build new societies out of the shambles of communism, ethnic war, and autocratic nationalism. “Bosnia cannot exist as a viable, peaceful, economically functional, and

Left to right, top row: Vaclav Havel, Robert Gelbard, Sven Alkalaj; bottom row, Eliot Engel, Harriet Hentges, Philip Dimitrov.
democratic state unless it is embedded in a region that is itself stable and democratic,” Hentges said.

Other speakers at the symposium included Sven Alkalaj, Bosnia’s ambassador to the United States; Philip Dimitrov, former prime minister of Bulgaria; U.S. representative Eliot Engel of New York; Robert Gelbard, special assistant to the president for Bosnia peace implementation; and Henryk J. Sokalski, special representative of the UN secretary general to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and head of UNPREDEP, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Macedonia. John Menzies, former U.S. ambassador to Bosnia and a senior fellow at the Institute and head of its Balkans Working Group, and program officer Lauren Van Metre took the lead in organizing the event.

The conference brought together international and regional policymakers, specialists, and practitioners to consider a broader regional strategy to ensure the survival of Bosnia and a culture of peace in the Balkans. Over 150 policymakers, academics, government officials, news reporters, and representatives of nongovernmental agencies attended the event, which complements the discussions that will occur this spring in the U.S. Congress on the issue of extending the American commitment to Bosnia.

Conflict Prevention

Preventing conflict before it breaks out saves more lives and money than trying to stop a war, said Sokalski. He described the successes of the UN’s peventive deployment (UNPREDEP) in 1992 to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), the only country in the former Yugoslavia to gain its independence without a war. The purpose of the mission is to monitor and report any developments in the border areas that could undermine confidence in and the stability of FYROM. Sokalski noted that the entire cost of the mission has been less than the annual budget of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, which is trying indicted war criminals for crimes committed during the Bosnian war.

Rep. Engel noted that war is a serious possibility in the Kosovo province of Serbia, whose two million ethnic Albanians comprise 90 percent of the population. In 1989, Belgrade declared martial law in the province, sent in troops, and stripped the province of its autonomy. Kosovo’s growing separatist movement—armed with weapons from the civil disturbance last year in neighboring Albania—is increasingly likely to see violent opposition as the only way to regain autonomy and restore human rights to Kosovo’s Albanians. “The war in Bosnia will look like a tea party if Serbian nationalism runs wild in Kosovo,” Engel said.

Veton Surroi, editor of Koha Ditore, the independent Albanian-language daily in Kosovo, urged the international community to help build an interim democratic political framework in Kosovo based on

Thousands of ethnic Albanians flee their villages in Kosovo in the aftermath of violence in February/March which left four Serbian police and 16 Albanians dead.

human rights to help discourage the use of violence and create a basis for determining the status of Kosovo at a future date. (A week after the symposium, Surroi was badly beaten by Serb police during a demonstration in Pristina, the capital city of Kosovo.)

John A. Berry, director of the European Policy Office in the Department of Defense’s Office of International Affairs, noted that the department and various Balkan countries are exploring regional cooperative security initiatives, including the possible creation of a standing peacekeeping unit comprising forces from Balkan countries. These measures are designed to encourage good neighborly relations and transparency among defense establishments in the region.

A lasting peace in Bosnia hinges on the arrest and trial of indicted war criminals, said Noel Malcolm of the Bosnian Institute. But the apprehension of indicted war criminals may depend on the willingness of NATO’s military leadership to involve their forces in the arrests. Malcolm called for a more uniform interpretation of the mandate given to the NATO Stabilization Force (SFOR) in Bosnia. “They do have the authorization to do whatever is necessary to help create secure conditions for such things as free and fair elections,” he said. “It’s not icing on the cake to arrest the war criminals. If one could clear away a whole layer [of corrupt leadership and those implicated in war crimes], that would change the whole national political landscape in Bosnia. . . . The sooner SFOR does the things they are not doing, the sooner they can leave.”

In his keynote luncheon address, Gelbard said that NATO troops will continue to forcibly apprehend indicted war criminals, if necessary. However, he added that “a significant number of the indictments will not stand up in court. We will not risk the lives of any soldiers . . . to try to apprehend indicted war criminals if we believe their cases are weak.”

Economics and Politics

Mark Medish, deputy assistant secretary for international affairs, Department of the Treasury, said that the major obstacle to dynamic regionalism in the Balkans lies in the individual countries, which need deep structural reforms, rule of law, technical capability, and a leadership with democratic legitimacy and political will. “The notion of regionalism is still a pipe dream,” he said. “Every day we are reminded that instability and criminality can cross borders easier than regional cooperation.”

The economics of the region are in the end a political matter, Dimitrov argued. In Bulgaria’s presidential elections in 1996 and parliamentary elections in 1997, young people voted unambiguously for democracy, he said. Since then, government officials have launched an ambitious administrative reform program, which includes streamlining government bureaucracy, which in turn reduces corruption. “The less the administration, the less the government, the less the chances for the mafia to bribe, corrupt, and survive,” Dimitrov said.

In Bosnia, fortunately the people are no longer suffering from constant cold and hunger, said Alkalaj. But although the economy is rapidly improving, Gross Domestic Product still is less than half of its pre-war levels. The inability for people and goods to move freely over interentity boundary lines hampers the development of normal economic trade and relations. Bosnia doesn’t have full control of its borders or of its customs posts, making trade with neighboring countries difficult, he said.

Bosnia only recently instituted a common currency, which is not an actual currency but a coupon, and the country’s central bank is struggling to get the cooperation of its branches, Alkalaj said. In this chaotic post-war environment, foreign investment remains low.

Nevertheless, plans are underway to build regional infrastructure, including roads and highways that run both north-south and east-west. Already, the federation has renewed links with iron ore mines and steel mills in Serbia, and economic cooperation with that country is likely to improve after the resumption of normal diplomatic relations.

Zlatko Lagumdzija, president of Bosnia’s Social Democratic Party and member of the parliament, said that in conjunction with improving economic conditions in Bosnia, recent elections have given the people some hope for a more democratic future. The election of a moderate as prime minister in Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, may help set the stage for continued democratization and moderation in the country. However, to ensure a multi-ethnic society, Bosnia still needs extensive constitutional changes and new election laws, he concluded.

Harriet Hentges

John Menzies

Lauren Van Metre

USIP’s Bosnia in the Balkans Initiative

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