Progress in Somalia
The next step toward peace in Somalia may be a peace conference, says the Institute's David Smock.
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omalia may be ripe for a major peace conference, and the United States could play an important role in making it possible, says David R. Smock, coordinator of Africa activities at the U.S. Institute of Peace and director of the Grant Program. He recently returned from a two-week fact-finding trip to Somalia, during which he met with clan leaders and representatives of grassroots organizations to assess recent developments toward peacebuilding. He was accompanied by senior fellow Hussein Adam, an expert on Somali affairs, and three other prominent Somalis. Reconstruction, economic revival, and political stability are already evident in large parts of Somalia, says Smock, particularly in the northeast and in the northwest, where the former British colony has formed its own government and declared itself an independent Somaliland. With little expense and minimal risk, the United States could help bring the country's factions together and help it get back on its feet by endorsing and providing financial support for a broad-based peace conference that would complete the U.S. peace initiative aborted in 1995, he says.
The three principal factional leaders in Mogadishu--Ali Mahdi, Hussein Aideed (the son of General Mohamed Farah Aideed, who died last year), and Osman Ato--are in regular communication and may be ready to make deals with each other, Smock says.
While the dialogue among them needs to continue and progress toward reconstruction needs to be reinforced, the most critical next step is a large peace conference that would focus on power sharing, government structure, the return of displaced persons, and related issues, Smock says. An Ethiopian- sponsored conference has been tentatively scheduled for October in Somalia, but it is not broadly inclusive and therefore is unlikely to succeed. Consistent with Somali negotiating principles--but in contrast to the past conferences organized by foreign mediators--a successful conference would have to be more broadly representative of Somalis, probably involving up to 1,000 delegates, Smock says. The conference also would need to be sustained over several months. "Although Somali ability to commit to and organize such a conference is not a certainty, it is worth investing the effort to give them a chance," Smock says. "The broad mass of Somalis is eager for a major step such as this toward peace."
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