U.S. Institute of Peace PeaceWatch

Short Takes Selected Institute Events

Is War Inevitable in Bosnia?
The Muslims, Croats, and Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina are preparing "psychologically and practically" for the renewal of fighting there once the NATO-led Stabilization Force (SFOR) pulls out, says Dusan Strbac, a Bosnian Serb and former career diplomat who is researching a book on U.S. policy toward the Yugoslav conflict. Strbac served as vice foreign minister of foreign affairs in the 1980s under Slobodan Milosevic in the former Yugoslavia and currently lives in Belgrade. Although fighting is not inevitable, creation of a unitary state in Bosnia is unlikely, he said at an Institute meeting April 22. It would be wiser to aim for improved coordination and cooperation between the three groups, he said.

While economic conditions in the Muslim Croat Federation are dire, the economic situation in Srpska, the Serb-controlled section of Bosnia, is even worse, Strbac said. Politics is blocking relations between Srpska and the outside world, but some kind of economic stability there is essential for peace. Ninety-six percent of international funds have gone to Bosnia, and a mere 1.3 percent have gone to Srpska, he said. About a third of Srpska's population is refugees, and of those about 100,000 are still without homes, living in schools, factories, and other shelters. "People there are on the verge of famine," Strbac said, adding that, as a result of such extreme hardship, some type of unrest could break out in Srpska.

The Madonna of Medjugore
The Catholic and Serbian Orthodox churches in Bosnia-Herzegovina tried to further their political quest for power through manipulating a religious movement in western Herzegovina, argues Vic Perica, peace scholar in residence at the Institute and a native of Croatia. At a work-in-progress talk May 1, Perica discussed a portion of his University of Minnesota doctoral dissertation, which deals with the conflicts among religious institutions that contributed to Yugoslavia's violent breakup. In this case study, he views the apparitions of the Madonna at the small village of Medjugore beginning in 1981 as a historical event and social phenomenon. The religious movement developed after several local children claimed to see and receive messages from the Virgin Mary. Since then the site has attracted more than 11 million pilgrims internationally, even during the Bosnian war.

What started as a benign spiritual activity in a complex multi-ethnic country under Communist rule got caught in the unraveling economic, political, and ethnic crisis that led to war, Perica said. Groups within the Catholic church in Croatia promoted Croatian nationalism and the cult of the Virgin as weapons against communism, he said. Soon, the Madonna of Medjugore became one of the main symbols of Croatian nationalism. Orthodox Serbs, in the grip of their own nationalist resurgence, were threatened by the cult, which they viewed as a religious offensive by the Croats. The resulting tensions exacerbated conflict, said Perica, and hampered peacemaking efforts throughout the country.

Who Remembers the Cold War?
Public attention to foreign affairs has always been like an elastic band that stretches and then retracts, says John Mueller, former visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and professor of political science at the University of Rochester. He discussed "Fifteen Propositions about American Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in an Era Free of Compelling Threats" at the Institute March 26. The public has never shown much interest in foreign affairs, unless they have perceived a clear danger such as communism, as in Korea and Vietnam, Mueller said. While the public pays close attention to cost accounting in its evaluation of foreign affairs, it pays most attention to the cost in American lives. As long as troops are not being killed, "no one cares if they're in Kansas or Macedonia, and they can remain there indefinitely with little public criticism," Mueller said. "The problem with peacekeeping is . . . that hostages could be taken and that could raise tensions to extreme levels because of the high value people put on a small number of American lives."

Events that have lingered in the public mind include World War II and the Depression, while events that have vanished but that were big at the time include the Korean and Gulf wars and the Cold War. "The Cold War is ancient history," Mueller said. "It may be that it wasn't that important," and that historians looking back may see it as a "weird, colorful blip."

Council of Europe Nurtures Democracy
It would be in the interests of both Europe and the United States if the latter used its observer status in the Council of Europe to coordinate U.S.-European policy regarding democratic reform in eastern Europe, says senior fellow Heinrich Klebes. The United States gained observer status in 1995, which allows the U.S. representative to attend confidential discussions of the Committee of Ministers working parties. "Such cooperation/coordination would be highly desirable in the interest of overall efficiency but also in order to make the 'new' democracies understand that there is no difference in essence between American democracy and European democracy and that there is a fundamental common purpose."

While the European Union and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe both facilitate the democratic transitions in Eastern Europe and countries of the former Soviet Union, the Council of Europe has a specific vocation with regards to democracy, the rule of law, and the protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms, Klebes noted. "It is therefore only natural that all Central and Eastern European countries turned to the council when they were freed of the yoke of totalitarian communism." While Klebes served as deputy secretary general between 1990 and 1996, the council admitted 16 former socialist countries and initiated a vast program of technical assistance to further "democratic know-how" in those countries. In an age of globalization, Klebes concluded, countries are increasingly coming to view their own security in the context of cooperative international structures that promote democracy.

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