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Zaire: A State in Crisis

The international community needs to act now in Zaire to prevent the spread of warlordism and chaos throughout Central Africa, according to experts in African affairs.

Right: President Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire and his wife arrive at the Kinshasa airport December 17. Mobutu has been receiving treatment for cancer in Europe. (AP Photo)

ecent events in Zaire--including a rebellion in the eastern part of the country--could precipitate a total collapse of the state, according to specialists in African affairs. If the international community fails to act now, Zaire could succumb to the kind of warlordism and chaos that broke out in Somalia and Liberia, wreaking untold suffering on its 45 million citizens. Such a catastrophe in Zaire would have the potential to destabilize all of Central Africa, say experts on the region.

More than 70 international scholars, diplomats, U.S. government officials, and representatives of the United Nations discussed the future of Zaire at a conference January 16. The event was cosponsored by the U.S. Institute of Peace under the direction of David R. Smock, director of the Grant Program and coordinator for Africa activities, and the U.S. Department of State, under the direction of Stephen Morrison of the policy and planning staff and David Kaeuper of the intelligence research staff. Representatives of Zaire's growing nongovernmental organization (NGO) community also attended the day-long event. Discussion was moderated by Chester A. Crocker, president of the Institute's board of directors and an African affairs specialist.

"We are at a crossroads in Zaire," Crocker said. "The warlord system is increasingly well-established there and poses a very real threat to Central Africa. The question is, are we going to have heightened international involvement in the Great Lakes region of Africa or are we going to walk away from the most important challenge in independent Africa today? We don't have much time to act."

Participants noted that--with the government in Zaire largely a fiction and its president, Mobutu Sese Seko, being treated for cancer in Europe--the country's regions have operated autonomously for many years. Thus the recent Tutsi-led rebellion in the east--in part a result of the ethnic conflicts in neighboring Rwanda and Burundi--was an understandable development. Crawford Young of the University of Wisconsin-Madison said the rebellion succeeded in a state that has lost its competence and credibility. Although the formal state structure exists, its operation is nominal in many spheres. For example, no resources are available for maintaining the country's infrastructure, and the economy is a shambles, Young said. Copper production fell from a peak of 471,000 tons in 1985 to 35,000 tons in 1995. Inflation hit 23,770 percent in 1994, and was "a mere" 542 percent in 1995, Young said. The country's currency, the zaire, was worth two U.S. dollars in 1967; it had fallen to over 21 billion zaires per dollar in 1995. "With the domestic currency virtually worthless, accumulation often depends on illicit international trade, dealing in commodities such as gold, diamonds, ivory, stolen vehicles, or recently, narcotics," Young said. "Presidential resources themselves derive in important measure from smuggling." Nevertheless, he argued, the government is still "well short of a collapsed state." Other participants said, however, that the state is in imminent danger from the factors Young cited, combined with the rebellion in the east and pressures from other countries in the region, including Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southern Sudan, and Angola.

Left to right: Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja, Crawford Young, David Smock, and Chester Crocker.

Filip Reyntjens of the University of Antwerp said that the governments of Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda have actively supported the rebellion in eastern Zaire, in part to create a security buffer zone on their borders. Even if the rebellion is put down, the eastern border will remain volatile and unstable. "This potential for ongoing conflict involves four government armies; a former government army [from Rwanda]; and over 10 rebel movements from five countries," Reyntjens said. All the players have their own agendas and are involved in potentially shifting alliances. "The local actors and their regional and international sponsors who have opened this Pandora's box bear a heavy responsibility for a situation that might develop beyond control," Reyntjens cautioned.

What Can the International Community Do?

One participant urged formation of a contact group that would bring together the Organization for African Unity (OAU); the United Nations; African leaders; and key Western interests including the United States, France, Belgium, and the European Union. The group could press for an internal dialogue within Zaire; promote reconciliation among Zaire, Rwanda, and Uganda, with the chief aim of ending armed cross-border interventions; and create an international-Zairian partnership with a credible chance of revitalizing a transition to an elected government. Further, he recommended that the United Nations enlarge its presence in Zaire to oversee elections, revitalize core ministries, and lay the groundwork for the country's rehabilitation and recovery.

Participants agreed on the urgent need for such measures, but cautioned that mobilizing support for such a major intervention would be difficult in the best of circumstances, especially in Zaire's case--many donors and international actors have virtually "given up on Zaire," in part because of past abuses and the lack of a legitimate government.