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Bosnia's Security and U.S. Policy in the Next Phase

t has become obvious over the past year that a functioning multiethnic Bosnia cannot be imposed by outsiders, "no matter how well-meaning," concludes a recent policy paper funded in part with a grant from the U.S. Institute of Peace. The report says that the political, military, and economic dynamics on the ground in Bosnia have demonstrated clearly that the Muslim, Croat, and Serb factions are at best "reluctant partners," just as they were reluctant signatories to the Dayton Accords in 1995, and that these factions are unlikely to form a democratic, multiethnic state in the near or mid-term. Yet the United States and the international community still possess the means to influence developments toward peaceful economic interaction and formation of common institutions.

The 22-page policy paper, "Bosnia's Security and U.S. Policy in the Next Phase," was produced by the Atlantic Council of the United States; the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, East European Studies division; and the International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX). In addition to the Institute, the NATO Office of Information and Press also helped to fund the project. Roger Kirk, director of the Atlantic Council, served as project chairman, and Jack M. Seymour, Jr., director of the council's program on Atlantic cooperation, and John Lampe, director of East European Studies at the Wilson Center, were project directors.

The paper's conclusions and recommendations are based on the research of more than 20 experts, including academics, businessmen, lawyers, and former government and military officials. Four contributors with linguistic and practical expertise in Bosnia traveled widely in the country to assess a range of security matters, including military, economic, and public safety issues. A number of the paper's recommendations are already being implemented. Additional recommendations from the report are listed below.

Recommendations

The task force recommends that the United States, in concert with the NATO allies and other participants in the Stabilization Force (SFOR), focus international efforts on the immediate priorities of restoring security, economic reconstruction, and peaceful interchange among two or three autonomous entities--Bosnia's largely Serb, Croat, and Muslim areas--with incentives for inter-entity cooperation and institutions in a confederal framework.

The task force recommends that to
implement this goal, the United States and its partners:

Prepare for a two-year military presence in Brcko as part of SFOR to discourage any attempts to use military action to determine the future jurisdiction of the city. (At the time of the Dayton Accords, the parties agreed that Brcko would remain under international control until its jurisdiction is decided through arbitration.)

Maintain in SFOR a capability to support reconstruction projects.

Strengthen the authority and resources of the Office of the High Representative, which represents the international community in Bosnia, in order to improve the coordination and effectiveness of civilian efforts in Bosnia and support the work of international organizations in promoting human rights and democratic principles, including media freedom.

Facilitate the settlement of refugees, extend assistance to them, and pressure local authorities to assure their safety; seek to improve the organization and performance of the International Police Task Force (IPTF).

Continue to urge the parties to create, and, where they already exist, strengthen, the common institutions envisaged in the Dayton Accords.

Use inducements and political and economic pressure on entity leaders to ensure a modicum of economic cooperation, including free movement of goods and capital across the inter-entity boundary line (IEBL), which marks the boundary between the Serb Republic and the Croat-Bosniac Federation, and seek to establish a legal framework for this.

Improve coordination of Western economic assistance and continue it at least through the next national elections in 1998; link promised economic assistance and other incentives for economic reconstruction and revival of trade to progress by local authorities toward the goals listed, and when such conditions are fulfilled, provide the promised assistance promptly and fully.

To order a free copy of "Bosnia's Security and U.S. Policy in the Next Phase," please contact James Vorhees at the International Research and Exchanges Board, 1616 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20006, or contact him at: (202) 628-8188 or E-mail: jvorhee@irex.org. © 1997 United States Institute of Peace