l to r foreground: David Smock and Walter Carrington, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria.	Gen. Sani Abacha (1984 photo)	l to r: John Paden and Julius Ihonvbere.

igeria's ruling military regime says it will transfer power to a civilian government next October, but experts at a recent joint U.S. Institute of Peace/U.S. Department of State conference on the country say the plan does not provide for a genuinely democratic election. Instead, they say, the proposed transition seems to be designed to ensure that General Sani Abacha, the current head of the military government, can succeed himself. Such an outcome would fail to meet even the minimum requirements for establishing democratic legitimacy. One speaker warned that if Nigerians lose all hope for political accountability in their country, recent outbreaks of violence could easily "spin out of control."

The day-long conference on Nigeria, held on October 28, was organized by David Smock, director of the Institute's Grant Program, and Steven Morrison and David Kaeuper of the State Department. Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering opened the session. Participants included 65 American, European, and Nigerian experts on Nigeria and representatives of various U.S. government agencies, as well as the Nigerian ambassador to the United States.

Pressures and Incentives

Conference participants urged the United States to collaborate with other key African and European states in pressing Nigeria to accomplish the following goals prior to the elections scheduled for October 1998: release political prisoners, establish a truly independent electoral commission, provide for free registration of political parties, generate an open climate including protection of free speech and press, and guarantee that a truly civilian government will replace the current military regime. Further, participants proposed that if these benchmarks are not met, the international community should freeze the assets of Nigerian leaders in foreign accounts.

Incentives for Nigeria's military leaders to make these changes should include increased access to multilateral banks, phased relief of Nigeria's external debt, and other economic and advisory assistance. In addition to pressures and incentives, the international community should give substantial support to human rights and pro-democracy groups in Nigeria, as well as to other civil society organizations.

For the country to move forward, noted one Nigerian intellectual, Nigeria also must address the issue of the unresolved 1993 presidential election, which the military canceled. Moshood Abiola reputedly won that election, but the polling results were annulled and Abiola was imprisoned. He is one of the many opposition leaders still incarcerated without a trial.

In recent years, economic conditions have steadily deteriorated in Nigeria, with a devastating effect on ordinary Nigerians. "Double-digit inflation has wiped out the savings and standard of living of many middle-class urban dwellers, as well as professionals on fixed incomes," one conference participant observed. Per capita income has dropped 75 percent since the early 1980s. As a result, about 10 million mostly educated Nigerians have fled the country in an ongoing exodus, thus depriving the country of the human talent needed for economic and democratic development.

Corruption is so pervasive that a recent survey ranked Nigeria the most corrupt among 50 countries, another participant reported. Nigeria's global drug trafficking and fraud schemes are of major concern to the United States.

Nevertheless, on the positive side, Nigerians still express strong support for their nation, and the country's elite continue to seek dialogue and consensus on national goals, one expert argued. "It is certainly premature to discount the possibilities of a successful transition," he said. Some Nigerian participants stressed, however, that if the country fails to meet the goals listed above, "at the end of this transition, we'll be exactly where we started."

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