Peace Watch

Prospects for Peace in Chechnya

December 1996

ow that a peace agreement has been brokered in Chechnya, an end to the fighting hinges on the emergence of a legitimate leadership among the Chechen separatists, says Georgi Derluguian, a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He argues that Moscow and the international community should formally recognize Aslan Maskhadov, the leader of the Chechen separatists, if they want to prevent the outbreak of chaos or the emergence of a less desirable leader.

Right: Russian soldiers carry their dead comrade, who was found in a house in downtown Grozny in August. (AP Photo)

Derluguian, of Northwestern University, and senior fellows Harley Balzer, of Georgetown University, and Anatol Lieven, former Moscow bureau chief for The Times of London, discussed "Peace in Chechnya?" at an Institute current issues briefing on Capitol Hill September 18. The event was organized by program officers Patricia Carley of the Research and Studies Program and Sally Blair of the Jennings Randolph fellowship program.

Derluguian said that the Chechens have regained their dignity by winning the war with Russia, and now their primary goal is to stay economically integrated with Russia. "For a very long time to come, Chechnya will remain economically dependent on Russia, and because of that, there is no realistic likelihood of secession," Derluguian said. Secure in this knowledge, Russia should allow maximum formal autonomy to Chechnya, including its own flag and international recognition as an autonomous province, he argued.

Balzer said the threat to peace in Chechnya comes primarily from a small number of people who are benefiting from the war economically. "They are Russians; some are military and some are mafia. It's hard to tell the difference," he said. They are profiting from the sale of weapons and from money they have collected from the Russian government and international charitable organizations under the guise of using it for the economic reconstruction of Grozny, but pocketing it instead.

If the war in Chechnya were to continue, the long-term damage to Russia would be enormous, Balzer said. "The war is like a cancer. It creates instability. For the Russian government to wage war on its own citizens of both Russian and Chechen nationality over an extended period of time is dehumanizing and will continue to demoralize the population."

Lieven said that to discourage the Russians from continuing the war, the U.S. government should threaten to cut off aid funds, specifically by pressuring the International Monetary Fund to suspend all development loans. Russia needs to stop fighting in order to reform its army, "which is terribly demoralized--and everyone knows it," he said. "A majority of officers are absolutely against the use of the military there, even to suppress a future possible secession movement. A large minority have even said they would disobey orders to use force." A major problem, Lieven said, is that neither the Russian government nor the Chechen separatists control all those fighting on their side. He cautioned that as long as some Russian troops remain in Chechnya, some Chechens are likely to go on attacking them.