The Future of Afghanistan

It is of pressing importance to regional stability--and to the citizens of Afghanistan--to keep the country from collapsing, says a panel of experts.

Right and below: Fighters of the Taliban militia take a position on the outskirts of Afghanistan's Laghman province in September. Later that day, they captured the province's capital city, Mehtar Lam. (AP Photo)

erhaps what Afghanistan needs is an interim government of technocrats who could act as a central authority to prevent the country from collapsing, says Ashraf Ghani of the World Bank. Such an interim government would likely comprise international experts who know the procurement procedures for obtaining international aid and could begin to rebuild Afghanistan "from the bottom up," he says. An effort of this kind could de-politicize the central authority and create incentives for peace among Afghanistan's four main factions, which could keep their district and provincial power bases. "The old formulas for ending the war haven't worked. It's time to explore something new."

A visiting professor of anthropology at Johns Hopkins University, Ghani was one of four panelists discussing "The Future of Afghanistan: The Taliban, Regional Security, and U.S. Foreign Policy" at a U.S. Institute of Peace current issues briefing November 6. Over 140 policymakers, academics, and journalists attended the event, which was organized by Joseph Klaits, director of the Jennings Randolph fellowship program, and John Crist, program officer. Robert Oakley of the National Defense University moderated discussion among the panelists, including Eden Naby of Harvard University, Barnett Rubin of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Institute senior fellow Marvin Weinbaum of the University of Illinois at Urbana.

Panel members said that the taking of Kabul by the Taliban forces and subsequent military and diplomatic developments signal a new phase in the country's 17-year-long conflict. The Taliban militia--founded by fundamentalist refugee students in Pakistan in 1994--had taken control of all but 6 of Afghanistan's 33 provinces in October. They ousted the government of President Burhanuddin Rabbani and imposed an idiosyncratic, strict Islamic rule in Kabul, the capital city. Ghani noted that bloody battles continue between the Taliban and the forces of the ousted government and its allies, who control the northern part of the country bordering on Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. "We have to give the warring factions options and explain why reconstruction is in their interests. Until now, no group has done this," he said.

The current situation presents clear dangers for the region but also possibilities for moving toward an end to the violence, panelists said. Naby and other panelists agreed that it is in the interests of the neighboring powers, as well as of the oil companies operating in the region, to help Afghanistan survive as a country. Weinbaum noted that Afghanistan serves as a land bridge between the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and South Asia, and that adjacent countries have an interest in seeing Afghan refugees on their soil return home. Rubin noted, however, that the U.S. policy of no contact with Iran may inadvertently hinder the resolution of fighting in Afghanistan. Iranian officials have signaled the United States "at a very high level" that they think the two countries have some common interests in Afghanistan, Rubin said. Resolving the conflict in Afghanistan will require cooperation among the regional powers, including Iran. But, he said, U.S. policy means that "things that in principle could be negotiated, cannot be." © 1996 United States Institute of Peace