Preventing Violent Conflicts

To craft an effective strategy for preventive intervetions, policymakers need to recognize what stage of evolution a conflict has reached, says author Michael Lund.

Michael Lund (left) presents a copy of his book on preventive diplomacy to UN secretary general Boutros Boutros-Ghali.

"Preventive diplomacy" has become a popular buzzword among policymakers, diplomats, and scholars. But the concept means many things to many people, says Michael Lund, senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and consultant with Creative Associates International of Washington, D.C. "Preventive diplomacy" is used to connote actions ranging from conflict prevention to conflict management to conflict resolution. Such imprecision can complicate attempts to actually implement a proactive strategy to preempt violence in a potentially explosive situation, cautions Lund.

A former director of the U.S. Institute of Peace's Jennings Randolph fellowship program and former senior scholar in charge of the preventive diplomacy initiative, Lund spoke at an Institute current issues briefing July 10. The event was held in conjunction with the Institute Press's publication of his book, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy.

More than 200 policymakers, diplomats, and journalists attended the event which also featured presentations by Morton Abramowitz, president of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Samuel W. Lewis, former Institute president, Barnett Rubin of the Council on Foreign Relations, and James Steinberg of the State Department. At a luncheon following the briefing, Nancy Soderberg, deputy national security adviser, discussed the administration's guidelines for intervention in international crises.

Preventive Diplomacy

As the United Nations, the United States, and many countries and third parties around the world have discovered, the costs of managing conflicts that have escalated to widespread violence are quite high, Lund said. Preventing wars from breaking out is generally more cost-effective and less risky. Yet if this is so, why isn't more of an effort being made to intervene in conflicts before they turn violent? "Some people say the core of the problem is a lack of 'political will,' " Lund said. He argued, however, that another serious impediment to preventive action is "the lack of a way."

Lund said that those at the high and middle policymaking levels in the U.S. and other governments have made no systematic evaluation of the potential risks and costs of interventions in international conflict situations at early rather than late stages. Thus, policymakers have failed to consider the full range of policy tools that can be used to reduce risks, the particular strategies that appear to work best, and how to implement those strategies.

Preventive diplomacy in practice draws on a range of diplomatic, political, military, economic, and other activities that can be carried out by governments, multilateral organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), individuals, or the disputants themselves, Lund said. He delineated the life history of a typical conflict and the types of interventions appropriate to prevent or control violence at each of its various stages.

Lund concluded by briefly outlining possible steps for organizing a multilateral preventive regime--a set of norms and procedures--that explicitly employs many levels of actors. "My purpose here is to stimulate further debate," he said. "Each of the principal players has its strengths and its weaknesses. None can perform all the tasks of preventive diplomacy adequately alone."

Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy is available from the Institute's press ($14.95, 1-878379-52-6). For order information, call 1-800-868-8064 or fax 703-661-1501. © 1996 United States Institute of Peace