Preventive Diplomacy for
the South China Sea

he paradox of Asia is that it has enjoyed stability and a high rate of growth since the end of the Vietnam War, but its leaders are anxious that this favorable climate may not continue into the future, says Stanley Roth, director of the U.S. Institute of Peace's Research and Studies Program. Sources of possible conflict in the region include political and economic instability in North Korea, resulting tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and disputed territorial claims in the East and South China Seas.

This last source of tension could erupt into a military or political crisis in the absence of preventive measures, cautions Scott Snyder, program officer in the Research and Studies Program and Asia specialist. Snyder is the author of The South China Sea Dispute: Prospects for Preventive Diplomacy, a 20-page Special Report published recently by the Institute. The report is based on a series of seven study group meetings on the issue since March 1995, held as part of an ongoing series of activities on potential conflicts in Asia and implications for U.S. policy.

Claimants involved in the South China Sea dispute--which focuses on the Spratly Islands, a group of over 400 rocks, reefs, and islands scattered within an 800,000-square-kilometer area--include Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. "The level of attention to the conflict has increased in proportion to estimates of the area's resource development potential," Snyder says, noting that continuation of the dispute, costs of exploration, and geological complexities have prevented definitive oil and gas explorations in much of the area. Other concerns among the claimants include access to fisheries, navigational safety, and broader strategic and environmental issues.

"A range of preventive diplomatic mechanisms and approaches might be used to dampen tensions, forestall the outbreak of conflict, and provide the basis for a political settlement," Snyder says. Possible approaches include creation of an eminent persons group to mediate between the parties, creation of a joint resource development authority, and resolution of bilateral issues before pursuing multilateral negotiations. A steady U.S. policy of "active neutrality" to deter potentially destabilizing military aggression in the region without inserting the United States into the dispute is the surest sign of support the United States can offer for preventive diplomacy, he concludes.

The Institute's follow-on activities to the South China Sea working group planned for next year include a working group on Asian regional security, including territorial disputes involving China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea in the East China Sea.

The Special Report on the South China Sea is available free of charge from the Office of Communications by calling 202-429-3828 or e-mail usip_requests@usip.org. You can also find the report here on our World Wide Web site. © 1996 United States Institute of Peace

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