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Creating an Agenda for Peace in Burundi

f the conflict in Burundi continues unchecked, the possibility of mass genocide increases, warns David R. Smock, director of the U.S. Institute of Peace's Grant Program and coordinator of its Africa activities. Smock co-chaired a day-long conference on Burundi September 10 with David Kaeuper, director of the Office of African Analysis in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the State Department. The event--organized by the Institute in collaboration with the State Department--brought together African, American, and European academic and diplomatic specialists to discuss possible approaches to quelling the violence in Burundi. The purpose was to generate negotiating ideas for the African, American, and European officials who are attempting to promote peace with justice in that troubled country. The proposals include recommendations for revisions to Burundi's constitution, provisions for dealing with perpetrators of genocide, and measures for preventing further violence.

Frederick Ehrenreich, an analyst for the State Department, said that if sanctions continue and the Hutu insurgency does not weaken, the modern sector of Burundi's economy will practically cease to function, the Tutsi will lose their economic advantage, and Tutsi emigration will increase. More refugee flows and massacres will occur on both sides, he predicted, but added that a single large genocide as occurred in Rwanda in 1994 or Burundi in 1972 is unlikely.

According to Rene Lemarchand of the U.S. Agency for International Development in Abidjan, there are some 300,000 internally displaced persons in Burundi, the majority of them Tutsi. The emergence of ethnically homogenous enclaves in large parts of the country is a new phenomenon, he said. The Hutu hold the hills, while the Tutsi have sought refuge in the towns.

Nonetheless, any negotiated settlement in Burundi is likely to be based on the Tutsi and Hutu remaining part of the same political system, argued Edward R. McMahon of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. Thus, significant changes are necessary to the 1992 constitution, which perpetrated serious social imbalances between the two groups.

Filip Reyntjens of the University of Antwerp cautioned, however, that the search for an appropriate constitutional arrangement will have to be included in a much broader agenda that needs to include control of the police, army, judiciary, and civil service; access to education; and management of the economy, among other issues.

Neil J. Kritz, the Institute's senior scholar on the rule of law, said that prosecution in Burundi's courts for past crimes could build confidence that those who attempt to abuse the rights of others will henceforth be held accountable. Since so many individuals from both ethnic groups have at one time or another committed homicide, several possible confession and amnesty programs could be implemented, such as those now under way in Rwanda and South Africa.

To deal with the problem of ethnic violence, Jan Van Eck of the Centre for Conflict Resolution at the University of Cape Town recommended establishing peace committees at the local, provincial, and regional levels, based on the South African model. The committees would empower the communities to play an active role in addressing issues that lead to conflict and they would become empowered and motivated to create multi-ethnic cooperation in ending violence.

U.S. Army Lt. Col. (ret.) Anthony Marley said that it is critical to integrate Hutu personnel into the armed forces and at the same time to demobilize excess combatants. The international donor community needs to understand that the process will be expensive and could take two to three years.