The Jan. 25-27 visit to India also marked the second meeting between Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in less than six months, as the world’s two largest democracies seek greater cooperation on defense, economic growth and energy. The summit occurred as the India-Pakistan relationship becomes increasingly fragile following a swell of violence on the Line of Control (LOC) dividing Kashmir between the two countries and India’s recent move to re-impose direct control over the area it administers.  

Join USIP on Feb. 9 for a discussion on possible ways to address the India-Pakistan rift. For more details, see the event page.

Pakistan’s actions demonstrate its ire. Immediately following Obama’s visit, Pakistan’s high commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, was called to Islamabad for urgent consultations with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the state of bilateral relations between the two countries.  Meanwhile, Pakistan’s foreign ministry spoke out against India’s bid for a permanent Security Council seat. And Pakistan pursued its own bilateral outreach, sending Army Chief General Raheel Sharif and the national security advisor, Sartaj Aziz, to Beijing for a high-profile official visit with defense counterpart General Qi Jianguo that coincided with Obama’s visit to India.

In Beijing, Pakistan’s message to India – and to its longtime ally the U.S. -- was clear: We can always look to China. Pakistan's mainline media have similarly touted the ties with China; major headlines cited Chinese officials referring to Pakistan as an "irreplaceable all-weather friend," a phrase that’s fast becoming a recurrent descriptor of the relationship by the two sides.

Meanwhile, New Delhi’s ties with Beijing have long been marred by economic competition, border disputes and tensions over China’s increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Not to be left behind in the diplomatic contest, though, the Indian government sent Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj to Beijing on Feb. 1 for three-way talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  Modi subsequently announced his own maiden journey to Beijing this May to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

India’s and Pakistan’s efforts to court Beijing for strategic purposes are clear. Yet while China sees Pakistan as one of its closest allies, particularly in the strategic sense, it approaches India with reluctant pragmatism, viewing the subcontinent as both its biggest commercial partner and most powerful competitor. Modi’s May trip is likely part of the contest for Beijing’s attention, even as India seeks to secure its own dominance in Asia with the U.S. partnership.

Nuclear alliances

One of the most significant results of Obama’s visit to New Delhi, in fact, was the announcement of a long-delayed deal to implement an agreement on civilian nuclear energy signed in 2008, in which the United States pledged to provide India with technology to reduce the dependence of the nation’s 1.3 billion people on fossil fuels. A new insurance pool is intended to help facilitate the entry of U.S. nuclear suppliers into India by indemnifying them against liabilities.  A White House joint statement also highlighted the commitment of the two leaders to “continue work towards India’s phased entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group” and other export-control regimes.

But these latest arrangements remain more symbolic than concrete. Questions remain about whether the insurance pool will address the concerns of American nuclear-equipment suppliers enough to begin work in India. And Pakistan has consistently opposed India's bid for membership in the 48-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a non-proliferation regime that controls exports of nuclear materials.

Pakistan’s Aziz used the Beijing meetings as a platform to reassert disapproval of India’s induction to the group under a country-specific exemption.  The joint Obama-Modi statement suggests that the international community may be ready to usher India into the NSG as a de-facto member in the near future.

Aziz insisted on Jan. 27 that such a move “would further compound the already fragile strategic stability environment in South Asia,” according to the Times of India.

Mistrust between leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad has been further aggravated as the U.S. and India have increased defense cooperation. Again during this summit, Obama and Modi agreed to expand joint military exercises and continue bilateral cooperation on military technology development in accordance with the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI). That includes “joint production of parts and systems for the Lockheed C-130 and RQ-11 Raven drones,” according to news reports.

Arms deals

In a nod to Pakistan, the U.S. recently authorized $1 billion in aid to support that country’s counterterrorism efforts. But with U.S.-Pakistan ties unsteady and political support for foreign assistance expected to wane in Washington following the NATO troop drawdown in Afghanistan last year, Pakistan has looked to China—its largest arms supplier—for some $4 billion in weapons and weapons technology in the past nine years.

Pakistan also has sought ties with Moscow; Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit last November resulted in a new military cooperation agreement.  The Washington Post reports that Pakistan hopes to buy three dozen Russian Mi-35 helicopters from Russia and undertake joint efforts on counterterrorism and narcotics.

So the U.S. faces distinct and serious challenges in balancing its relationships with leaders in Islamabad and New Delhi. Among the signs to watch that might signal an easing or escalation of tensions are the fate of long-dormant peace talks over Kashmir, the role of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan and the advancement of India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

On Kashmir, when Obama informed Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif last November of his upcoming visit to India, Sharif made a special appeal to the president to discuss the issue with Modi. It is thus surprising that peace talks were not discussed during the U.S. president’s visit to India, particularly given the recent uptick in shellings along the Line of Control that have displaced thousands on both sides and the decision by New Delhi to take direct control in its area.

There are still possibilities for cooperation between India and Pakistan that could improve diplomatic relations. Following the horrific Nov. 16 attack on the school in Peshawar, Pakistan has resolved to crack down on insurgents and to continue to target Taliban safe havens in North Waziristan. India has long called for Pakistan to get tougher with terrorist groups that target the subcontinent as well. Likewise, regional trade liberalization and economic development also offer space for enhanced ties.

As long as violent conflict between Pakistan and India can be contained, their rivalry is most likely to play out in diplomatic maneuvering, at least in the short term.

Amy Calfas works in USIP’s Center for South and Central Asia and has lived and traveled in the region.