Yemen: Tracking the Situation

USIP is tracking the situation in Yemen.

May 27, 2011 -Yemen’s uprising, which began in January with small, peaceful demonstrations, has now brought the country to the brink of civil war. On May 23, clashes broke out in the capital city, Sanaa, between army units loyal to President Ali Abdallah Saleh and opposition militias loyal to opposition leader and Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, head of the Hashid tribal federation. By May 26, the death toll from the fighting neared 70, and further escalation seemed inevitable. Opposition supporters and army units fought for control of key government buildings, and tribesmen loyal to Sheikh al-Ahmar moved from the countryside into Sanaa to reinforce pro-Hashid militias.

After months of negotiations that included mediation by the Gulf Cooperation Council and Western diplomats, President Saleh is widely seen as triggering the outbreak of conflict by refusing to honor his commitment to leave office. Three times, Saleh has come to the brink of signing a transitional agreement, and each time, he backed off at the last minute. Most recently, on May 22, Saleh reneged on a pledge to sign the agreement at the embassy of the United Arab Emirates. Instead, mobs of presidential loyalists besieged the embassy, trapping the American Ambassador and other diplomats for several hours. Army units loyal to the president took up positions around Sheikh al-Ahmar’s home, which itself had become an armed compound housing dozens of tribal militiamen brought to Sanaa for the protection of the Sheikh and his family. According to press reports, it was an attempt by army units to enter the al-Ahmar compound that was the specific trigger for the fighting that now threatens to erupt into full-scale civil war.

How did Yemen reach this point? While negotiations dragged on, protests demanding an end to the decades-long rule of President Saleh, who first rose to power in Northern Yemen in 1978, grew into a national movement this spring. Despite the regime’s efforts to end the uprising, including through the indiscriminate use of force against peaceful demonstrators, protests continued to gain in size and spread to virtually every region of the country. Elements of the armed forces defected to the opposition, as did several members of the president’s ruling party, and the leadership of some of the country’s most powerful tribal confederations, including Sheiks representing the al-Ahmar tribe. As pressure mounted, President Saleh indicated his willingness to leave office and to negotiate a transfer of power. However, while repeatedly expressing his willingness to step down, the president’s refusal to finalize an agreement, his often belligerent rhetoric, and the mixed signals he communicated about his ultimate intentions had the effect of polarizing relations between the regime and opposition. Saleh’s actions undermined both domestic and international confidence in his leadership. They heightened tensions to the point that his failure to appear at the UAE embassy on May 22, and his deployment of loyal units around opposition locations, were sufficient to spark the recent fighting.

The outbreak of violence does not mean an end to negotiations. Efforts continue to secure Saleh’s departure from power. However, with each additional clash, with casualties mounting, and with both sides hardening their positions and reinforcing their troops, the obstacles to a peaceful resolution of Yemen’s political crisis are increasing by the day.

***

April 1, 2011 - Demands for political change in Yemen are rooted in elements similar to those existent in the rest of the Arab world: high unemployment (particularly among the youth), social and economic inequalities, corruption, and an aging, authoritarian leadership—President Ali Abdullah Saleh has held office since 1978. Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world and also faces a rebellion in the north.

Initially, in mid-February, small student groups inspired by the successful experiences of Egypt and Tunisia led demonstrations calling for basic reforms. But as the state responded with brutal crackdowns, these protests evolved into a mass movement that called for change of leadership followed by transition in the country. The capital city of Sana'a became the hub of popular protests, with thousands of demonstrators flooding the streets. By late March, senior tribal leaders along with some of the president’s former allies, such as General Ali Mohsin, had defected to the opposition. Tribal leader Hamid al-Ahmar has emerged as one of Saleh’s biggest rivals, suspected of vying for a power grab by some observers.

Saleh declared a state of emergency on March 18 and dismissed his cabinet two days later, in an attempt to placate protestors. But Saleh says he will remain president until elections in 2013, despite earlier hints that he would give up the presidency under certain terms. On March 27, leaders of Yemen’s ruling party, the General People’s Congress, announced their support of Saleh’s decision to stay. Meanwhile, the opposition is keeping up their demands which, in addition to the removal of Saleh, include dismissal of local councils and leadership structures, the creation of a national transitional council, the establishment of a supreme constitutional court, the abolishment of the Ministry of Information, and a complete revamping of the current national security apparatus.

Eye on the Middle East and North Africa: Experts from the U.S. Institute of Peace are closely following developments throughout the Middle East and North Africa. In a series of reports and interviews, they cover a wide range of issues.