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John Park, a senior program officer who directs the Korea Working Group, analyzes prospects for the July 28-29 U.S.-North Korea “exploratory” meeting in New York. After more than two years of “strategic patience” exercised by the United States in not rushing into negotiations with North Korea without its firm commitment to denuclearization, why is this bilateral meeting taking place now?
Key elements in China’s Communist Party, military, and business circles have steered China’s North Korea policy toward achieving stability and strengthening ties to Pyongyang, complicating U.S. efforts to enlist China’s help at reining in North Korean provocations.
Latest from USIP on South Korea
- December 15, 2011 | Event
On December 15th, USIP hosted a panel of current and former officials from the U.S., Japan and South Korea that examined the post-2012 political, economic and security landscape in Northeast Asia following leadership changes – both democratically facilitated and planned. Against this background, the panel assessed challenges and opportunities for the U.S., Japan and South Korea.
- October 2, 2011 | Publication
The Institute’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding held the course in nuclear nonproliferation Sept. 26-30. And, for the first time ever, an undersecretary of state, Ellen Tauscher, spoke to an Academy class. Tauscher is the undersecretary of state for Arms Control and International Security Affairs.
- July 28, 2011 | Publication
John Park, a senior program officer who directs the Korea Working Group, analyzes prospects for the July 28-29 U.S.-North Korea “exploratory” meeting in New York. After more than two years of “strategic patience” exercised by the United States in not rushing into negotiations with North Korea without its firm commitment to denuclearization, why is this bilateral meeting taking place now?
- July 19, 2011 | Event
On July 19, USIP held a full day conference that explored transformations inside North Korea that have significant implications for the regime and the U.S.’s North Korea policy. A group of Seoul-based North Korean defectors spoke at the conference and shared their unique experiences and operational insights from conducting business in the informal markets.
USIP conducts ongoing research and policy analysis on major developments on the Korean Peninsula through three Track 1.5 projects – the Korea Working Group (KWG), the U.S. China Project on Crisis Avoidance and Cooperation (PCAC), and the U.S.-ROK-Japan Trilateral Dialogue in Northeast Asia (TDNA). Based on key findings from CAP's ongoing research interviews with Asian government think tank counterparts, KWG director Dr. John Park conducts regular briefings for senior Congressional staffers and officials at the State Department and the Pentagon. Recent briefings focused on:
- China's supporting role in accelerated North Korean leadership succession process via the Communist Party of China-Workers' Party of Korea channel - a largely underexamined relationship with major implications for the U.S.' North Korea policy;
- Beijing's "Sunshine Policy with Chinese Characteristics;"
- the motivations for and limitations of Beijing's efforts to defuse tensions on the Korean peninsula following North Korea's artillery attack on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island.
The Current Situation
July 2011
On June 3, North Korea revealed that it had been engaged in South Korea-initiated secret talks. South Korea acknowledged that these talks had taken place in Beijing, but denied North Korea’s claim that South Korean officials had offered bribes for an inter-Korean summit. North Korea declared that it would not deal with the Lee Myung-bak administration for the remainder of its term. The significance of this development is that it derails Beijing’s threestage proposal for resuming the stalled Six-Party Talks. Stage one called for an improvement in inter-Korean relations. Stage two set out U.S.-North Korea talks. Stage three envisioned the culmination of this process with a restart of the Six-Party Talks. While this is a disappointment for Seoul in its efforts to improve inter-Korean ties, this is also a major setback for Beijing’s plan to facilitate a resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Chinese leaders are concerned that if they remain deadlocked, the region will become more unstable, particularly in light of the North Korean provocations against the South last year.
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