Q&A: Amid Boko Haram’s War and Postponed Vote, What Prospects for Nigeria’s Election?
By James Rupert
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, begins 2015 at the brink of both a historically important election and a breakdown of state authority that is simultaneously cause and effect of the Islamist Boko Haram rebellion. Nigeria’s ability to govern itself effectively will be critical in determining whether Boko Haram can be contained or continues to grow into a trans-national threat like that of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the Middle East.

Staving Off Nigeria’s Next Train Wreck (from Foreign Policy, The Peace Channel)
By Princeton N. Lyman
Africa’s biggest democracy is pushing ahead with its next election. Here's why that would be a mistake.

Nigeria: Time For More International Community Attention And Action (from All Africa)
By Johnnie Carson
With less than a month to go before its national elections, Nigeria is awash with serious problems which are not likely to go away soon, including insecurity in the northeast and growing economic pressures. These issues are generating renewed uncertainty about the country’s long term stability, issues that Washington and London cannot ignore.

Democratic But Deadly (from Foreign Policy, The Peace Channel)
By Jonas Claes
Will violence rock Nigeria’s Feb. 14 national election? Perhaps—but there was a way to prevent it.

Religion and Conflict in Nigeria: Countdown to the 2015 Elections
By John Paden
Nigeria—its vast population evenly split between Muslim and Christian—is counting down to another presidential election, scheduled for February 2015. This report raises a number of questions about the relationship of religious identity and internal conflict and the consequences of a polarized election. Do religious symbols exacerbate or mitigate conflict, especially during an electoral season? What are the interfaith efforts to ameliorate or mitigate ethno-religious conflict? What are the consequences of a polarized election?

Nigeria Attacks Flare, Highlighting Fragility Before Election
By Viola Gienger
A recent flare of attacks in northern Nigeria by the militant group Boko Haram illustrates the potential for more widespread unrest, especially as the country nears elections next month, and the trend highlights the need for political leaders to take action to prevent further violence, USIP experts say.

Nigeria Activists Find Gaps in Violence Prevention Efforts for 2015 Elections (from Afrobarometer)
By Jacqueline H. Wilson and Debra Liang-Fenton
Nigeria's February 2015 general elections have been described by former Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson, a senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, as being both "intensely watched and extremely important." The vote poses risks as the country struggles with internal conflicts, but it also presents possibilities for citizen engagement and political stability.  Yet a workshop we conducted recently in the capital Abuja exposed some critical gaps in efforts to prevent election-related violence similar to the politically-driven communal clashes that have roiled this oil-rich nation in the past.

Nigeria’s State of Emergency May Spread Amid Violence, Politics
By Viola Gienger
Experts say extremist violence and the government’s response are renewing and exacerbating tensions in multiple sections of the country, as political parties begin to jockey for position in the 2015 elections.

Nigeria PeaceGame Highlights Potential for Violence in Upcoming Election
By Viola Gienger
Widening political rifts, increasing militant attacks and plunging oil revenues are escalating the risks of more widespread violence in Nigeria’s upcoming elections, according to experts who played roles ranging from international organizations to the militant group Boko Haram, during a daylong PeaceGame exercise.

Midterm Challenges in Nigeria: Elections, Parties, and Regional Conflict
By John Paden
At the midpoint between presidential elections in Nigeria, the country’s leaders need to take stock of the conflict resolution mechanisms in place to deal with the political divide between north and south, Muslim and Christian, and to prevent electoral violence in 2015. Depending on how it contributes to regional balance, power sharing, and perceptions of fair play, the coming phase of party coalition building may well determine future national stability.

Nigeria’s 2011 Elections: Best Run, but Most Violent
By Dorina Bekoe
Nigeria’s 2011 elections were the most violent yet—claiming 800 lives in three days. Breaking the cycle of violence includes ending impunity for political violence, cultivating local peacebuilding initiatives and strengthening local democratic institutions.

Boko Haram, Extremism, and Violence in Nigeria

What Is Boko Haram?
By Andrew Walker
The group Jama’atu Ahlus-Sunnah Lidda’Awati Wal Jihad, known the world over as Boko Haram, is an extremist Islamic sect in Nigeria that has created havoc across the north of the country and in the capital, Abuja. Its violent attacks on government offices, the United Nations, and churches threaten to destabilize the country. A range of conflicting narratives has grown up around Boko Haram, and the group’s origins, motivations, and future plans remain a matter of debate. This report addresses the questions stemming from these narratives and suggests how the group can be contained.

Nigeria’s Double-Edged Front-Line
By Georgia Holmer
Vigilantes have become vital in the country's fight against Boko Haram. But is there a way to ensure they're not also making things worse?

Religious Leaders Countering Extremist Violence: How Policy Changes Can Help
By Melissa Nozell
As the militant group calling itself “Islamic State” stormed across northern Iraq and Syria in recent months, prominent imam Sheikh Abdullah bin Bayyah and more than 100 other Muslim leaders flew into action, drafting a condemnation of the insurgent group’s actions with an appeal to Islamic jurisprudence. In Burma (Myanmar), as Muslims have faced persecution from Buddhist extremists, some Buddhist monks offer shelter in their monasteries. In Nigeria, the kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls by Boko Haram this year prompted Muslim and Christian leaders like Pastor Esther Ibanga to organize peaceful demonstrations to oppose extremist violence.

Why Do Youth Join Boko Haram?
By Freedom Onuoha
Boko Haram’s recent kidnapping of over two hundred schoolgirls in Nigeria has once again brought the group into the international spotlight, making more urgent the questions about how to curtail its activities and the activities of other armed groups that threaten the security of Nigeria and the region. Drawing on the results of a 2013 study in six northern Nigerian states, this report addresses the question of how youth are radicalized and recruited into armed groups and what the Nigerian government and other interested actors can do to prevent it.

What’s Next for Security in the Niger Delta?
By Aaron Sayne
The Nigerian government’s 2009 amnesty of militants in the Niger Delta dramatically reduced the violence that had plagued the region and restored preinsurgency levels of oil production. However, many of the problems that sparked violent confrontations remain unaddressed. This new Special Report draws on the views of many sectors of Nigerian society to gauge whether peace on the delta can be sustained.

Preventing Electoral Violence

Preventing Election Violence: Equal Risk, Different Results
By Ian Proctor
Even in the tumultuous history of Bangladesh, the deadly campaign-related violence that plagued this year’s parliamentary elections seemed unprecedented. Hundreds reportedly were killed amidst bitter feuding between the governing Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. And yet the risk factors for such turmoil aren’t that different from difficult but more peaceful places like Malawi. A USIP project is examining those and three other cases to determine how and when electoral violence prevention efforts might be able to help.

Elections and Violent Conflict in Kenya: Making Prevention Stick
By Claire Elder, Susan Stigant and Jonas Claes
To prevent a recurrence of the widespread violence that left 1,100 dead and 650,000 displaced in the aftermath of the December 2007 Kenyan elections, Kenya and the broader international community initiated a multifaceted peacebuilding effort in the lead-up to the country’s March 2013 elections.

Kenyans Question "Prevention Success" of 2013 Elections
By Jonas Claes and Claire Elder
A Nairobi audience of journalists, election officials, and civil society gathered to hear the results of field work conducted in 10 counties across Kenya. The study gauged popular attitudes about the factors that explained the absence of widespread violence during Kenya’s 2013 Presidential elections. Conventional wisdom among international observers indicated that these elections presented a ‘prevention success,’ since the widespread violence of the 2007-08 elections had not been repeated. But the research delivered a surprise.

PakVotes: A Social Media Experiment in Elections Monitoring
By Nadia Naviwala
PakVotes, an experimental project run by a Pakistani NGO and supported by USIP, brought social media platforms together with a network of reporters to track violence during Pakistan’s 2013 elections. The experience offers lessons for the future use of social media to publicize conflicts and violence during elections and other major events.

Youth Mobilization and Political Constraints in Afghanistan: The Y Factor
By Anna Larson and Noah Coburn
As Afghanistan’s youth population grows, so do youth aspirations for political reform and access to economic resources. Yet old-guard leadership marginalizes new groups and challenges to the status quo. This study of youth in two districts and at Kabul University finds that increased political activism by youth is not translating to more effectiveness in reforming the patronage networks that dominate the Afghan political system. Youth organizations that appear apolitical, such as sports clubs, may be the forums where youth mobilize more effectively.

Using Theatre to Mitigate Election Fraud in Afghanistan
By Jeremy Moore
Afghanistan’s presidential election in April 2014 is critical to the country’s future stability. This political transition, after all, will usher in the first post-Karzai government since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. If that wasn’t challenging enough, Afghans also must navigate the economic transition of an expected sharp drop in foreign aid, as well as the security transition of the withdrawal of most foreign troops. Given the magnitude of these changes, the Afghan population must trust that the next political leadership is credible and legitimately-elected. As such, holding a valid election is a first step in this process.