Instead of isolating Serbia,
the policies of the international community should move
the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) toward democracy
-- and quickly. On June 17, 1999, the U.S. Institute of
Peace convened a Balkans Working Group to discuss the
future of Serbia. Participants recognized that although
the initiative for democratization must come from the
people and organizations within Serbia, the international
community could implement policies that bolster their
efforts.
Democratizing Serbia will be harder
today than it was before March 24, since the war has
damaged the relationship between Serb democrats and the
West. Moreover, the West's isolation of the FRY-- with
the important exceptions of Kosovo and the Republic of
Montenegro, whose embrace of democracy is the bright spot
in an otherwise bleak picture -- will complicate the
FRY's necessary move toward democracy and stability.
Isolation Helps the Regime
Regional experts among the working
group participants expect isolation of Serbia to be
counterproductive to Western interests. The Milosevic
regime will use isolation by the West as an excuse to
continue repressive emergency decrees, to limit the flow
of information, and to encourage extreme nationalism.
Furthermore, Serbia faces disastrous economic conditions
-- $4 billion in war damages and a 40 percent GDP loss,
on top of previous sharp GDP declines since the breakup
of the former Yugoslavia. These desperate conditions can
not foster democracy; instead they may push Serbs toward
nationalist or autocratic leaders.
No Collective
Guilt
Accusations of collective guilt
against the Serbian people must be avoided.
Responsibility for the Kosovo atrocities belongs to the
Milosevic regime. However, pro-democracy Serbs must
acknowledge the atrocities committed in Kosovo by
Yugoslav security, army, and paramilitary forces and
should support the United Nations Security Council peace
arrangement.
Fair Treatment
The international community must
reassure all Yugoslavs that they will be treated equally
with regard to humanitarian assistance, human rights
protection, and refugee returns. The NATO and UN missions
in Kosovo must treat all individuals -- regardless of
national origin -- fairly. They must guarantee protection
to those Serbs who wish to remain in Kosovo.
Possible Next
Steps
The Balkans Working Group
identified initial steps to revitalize democratic forces
within the FRY that do not also strengthen the Milosevic
regime. The following options emerged from the
discussion:
- Initiate a quiet dialog with
members of the Yugoslav Army (VJ) who are prepared to
challenge the regime.
- Renew and increase support for
democratically oriented non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) and encourage the building of democratic
institutions.
- Deliver humanitarian assistance
through democratic NGOs and opposition-run
municipalities.
- Reconstruct infrastructure for
humanitarian purposes (water supplies, possibly
electricity).
- Exempt from sanctions small
investments in the private sector if procedures can be
established to channel funds directly to private
entrepreneurs (avoiding the regime).
- Increase support for and
transmission of RFE/RL's South Slavic service and
VOA's Serbian service to provide alternative sources
of information.
- Renew and increase support for
independent media within the FRY.
- Lift some European travel
restrictions that apply to Yugoslavs.
- Offer Yugoslavia membership in
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) on a quid pro quo basis: membership for
the FRY only if the Yugoslav government holds new
elections supervised by the OSCE.
The international community must
consider measures such as those outlined above to bridge
Serbia's isolation and to push the republic in a
democratic direction. The stability of the Balkan region
depends on a strong democratic Serbia at its center.
Official high-level contacts with the Milosevic regime
must be avoided. Selective engagement of and assistance
to Serbia must be tied to strict compliance with
democratic values
