Muslim World Initiative

The Peace Index Project

The Peace Index Project is intended as a first-of-its-kind effort to gauge the extent to which a country displays a propensity and capacity for the peaceful resolution of domestic and international disputes. Though the project is being developed within the context of USIP’s Muslim World Initiative, it is designed as a generic political index, applicable to any country, in any region of the world. In that respect, it is similar to well-known political indices, such as those by Freedom House or Transparency International. However, it is also far more comprehensive in scope, since it does not focus on clearly circumscribed areas, such as political rights and civil liberties or corruption, for which indicators are readily available. Instead, the Peace Index endeavors to assess both a country’s commitment to resolve disputes peacefully and its capacity to do so, which represents a formidable analytical challenge. That is the case because concepts such as political will, intent, commitment, and capacity are hard to quantify, can draw only partially on available data sets, and require a keen understanding of the political dynamics of the countries targeted. Yet it is precisely the ambitious nature of this project, its relevance to a broad variety of audiences (policymakers, international organizations, donors, media outlets, and scholars concerned with conflict analysis and prevention), as well as the absence of such an index to date, that make this project particularly timely and relevant to U.S. strategic interests.

The Peace Index project involves two components: a numerical index and a country narrative. The numerical index revolves around three sets of variables: a Governmental Peace Index (GPI), to measure the government’s commitment and capacity to promote and uphold peace; a Societal Peace Index (SPI) to assess the efforts and influence of non-governmental actors in promoting and upholding peace; and an Internal Conflict Index (ICI), intended to measure the gravity of internal conflict, especially of a violent or a potentially violent nature. The Peace Index thus cuts across several areas and dimensions. It encompasses both state institutions and civil-society organizations; it takes into account both commitment or intent and institutional capacity or performance; and it aims to reflect the extent to which the state’s and society’s capacity to resolve disputes peacefully translate into a lack (or presence) of domestic conflict in the absence (or existence) of an inclination to fuel regional and international disputes. A team of regional and country experts, operating under the supervision of senior USIP staff, will determine GPI, SPI, and ICI ratings for targeted countries. To assist them in making these assessments, and to ensure that evaluations will be made using similar criteria (from one expert and country to another), experts will be provided with specific sets of questions and guidelines to determine GPI, SPI, and ICI ratings. The overall Peace Index then will be computed.

The second component of the Peace Index project will consist of a country narrative (approximately 2,500 words). This narrative will not be a mere complement to the numerical peace index; instead, it will be required to assess the proper significance of that index. To ensure consistency across countries assessed and among the experts commissioned over time, as well as to make it easier for the reader to move from one case to another and compare cases to each other, all narratives will follow specific guidelines and address a few core categories. In addition, narratives also will discuss country-specific issues and variables that may not necessarily be given the importance they deserve in the standard numerical peace index. They also will address any obvious questions that may arise from particularly high or low peace index scores, or any perceived anomaly in the score received by a given country.

The peace index has both descriptive and predictive components. Descriptively, it provides a snapshot of the extent to which, at a given point in time, a country displays an inclination to resolve disputes peacefully. It also partly captures the degree to which that country is a source of domestic and regional or international tensions. Side by side with this descriptive component, the index incorporates data that give it a predictive dimension. It can help analysts gauge the potential for violent conflict occurring within the country, or being initiated or fueled by that country, and consequently can contribute to conflict prevention efforts.

When applied to a single country over time, the index will help track year-to-year changes in that country’s propensity to resolve disputes peacefully. A sudden and marked deterioration of a country’s rating on the peace index (or a sustained decline in that rating over time) should focus the attention of analysts and practitioners alike on the possible reasons behind such a phenomenon. A country with a low rating on the peace index is not necessarily about to undergo a major, violent conflagration; nor does it automatically constitute a threat to others. However, it warrants close monitoring, since low peace index ratings indicate countries that are potential sources of violence and/or instability in the medium to long run. When applied to several countries in a given year, the index may provide a way of classifying countries by their readiness and capacity to resolve disputes peacefully. Such a ranking may be of particular use when making decisions related to the identity of those countries that should be the target of conflict prevention or peacebuilding efforts. It also may be of relevance to decision-makers concerned with levels and contents of assistance packages.

In its pilot phase, the framework will be applied to five countries: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan. The anticipated date for completion of the pilot study is October 1, 2006.