Challenges to Genuine Democratization in the Arab World
And Now For The Hard Part: Moving Beyond Liberalized Autocracy in Morocco
Guilain Denoeux | Colby College
Summarized by Andrew G. Mandelbaum
After embarking on its liberalization agenda in the late 1980s, Morocco has endured a smooth succession of power and a sustained reduction in the monarchy’s dominion over political and social affairs. Yet, while Morocco has established itself as the neighborhood’s political trailblazer, Guilain Denoeux argues that the kingdom possesses little more than a 30% chance of becoming a sustainable competitive democracy by 2015 and a 50% chance by 2030. Significant advancements toward political openness, including reform of the family code and establishment of the Equity and Reconciliation Commission, have fostered a positive atmosphere in which “’fear has disappeared.’” However, many difficult questions and obstacles remain, rendering precarious the expectation of a democratic transition.
Why Democracy is Improbable
Denoeux highlights the following hindrances to democracy:
- Vested interests are “deeply ensconced” in the power structure. The military and intelligence communities, crony capitalists, and makhzan, or the ruling elite, are entrenched in the Moroccan political system and possess little incentive to oversee a democratic shift.
- International and domestic security environments are not conducive to fast-paced, thorough democratization. The terrorist attacks of September 11th and Morocco’s own May 16th 2003 attacks are frequently invoked to justify the deceleration of the reform process and even reverse some reforms.
- Structural deficiencies of governmental and political institutions. Political parties lack popular legitimacy and the capacity to link citizens to the political system. The monarchy dictates “’who gets what, when, and how,’” governance is poor at all levels, and a deficit of accountability subsists.
- The monarchy’s ambivalence toward acceleration and the deepening of political reforms. King Mohamed VI intervenes in the affairs of government at will, has bypassed or ignored the cabinet on multiple occasions, and prevents institutions from assuming responsibility.
Political and Ideological Cleavages
Fragmentation within the body politic is one of the greatest impediments to Morocco’s transition away from state-managed liberalization. Cleavages are derived from long-standing social divisions, modern points of ideological tension, and disagreements over objectives, organization, and petty feuds. Although the monarchy has a vested interest in maintaining a highly pluralized political field, it is not individually responsible for the degree of fragmentation seen today.
Among the significant divisions that have emerged in recent years are:
- Universalists v. Identity Guardians. Universalists are “forward-looking advocates for a more liberal and open polity…” while identity guardians are “skeptical” that a “harmonious balance can be struck between western-style modernity and Moroccan ‘authenticity.’” The democracy proponents among these camps have yet to find a common platform.
- Modernists Divided. The modernist camp, which hosts a range of ideas is “hopelessly divided.” Sticking points include: determining how to engage the regime, whether to engage Islamists or not, and the proper pace of political reform.
Constituencies for Reform and Pact-Making Opportunities
Morocco boasts several constituencies working to advance reform in both society and state. Within society, reformist elements include a home-grown civil society that has benefited significantly from international support. Business elites have formed several well-run organizations that demand greater transparency in economic transactions and a level playing field, while helping to modernize the private sector. Furthermore, the press has become increasingly vibrant, breaking taboos on such issues as the Western Sahara. Working from within the state apparatus, the civil service has driven liberalization and remains “one of the most promising developments affecting prospects for reform in Morocco.”
The Moroccan political environment is “unusually conducive to pact-making, both within society and between it and the state.” Its assets include: a robust civil society, reform-minded business elites, effective networks that link civic organizations, independent media, sizable constituencies of forward-looking, and well-trained reformers. For its part, the monarchy helps bridge constituencies and facilitates pact-making. However, considerable constraints are also apparent: the monarchy does not want to relinquish royal prerogatives, the makhzan are entrenched, the fragmentation of secularist parties weakens the political field, and structural weaknesses cripple political parties.
The Way Forward
A multitude of critical reforms must be undertaken for the liberalization process to move forward. The following represent just a handful:
- Constitutional and legal reforms: the powers of the monarchy must be curtailed and the king must be “de-sacralized;” the prime minister must assume greater powers, and the provincial governors should be accountable to the prime minister.
- Disentangling political and economic interests: widespread feeling exists that “the game is rigged;” many believe they have no future in Morocco and attempt to cross the Straits of Gibraltar.
