December 2004
The Road to Democracy
Introduction
Promoting democracy in the Muslim world through political, economic, judiciary, and educational reforms is a top priority of the Muslim World Initiative. Despite political and philosophical differences about what democracy actually means and how best to achieve it, a solid consensus is emerging in the United States, Europe, and within civil society in the Arab and Muslim worlds, that authoritarian politics is no longer an acceptable option.
Secretary of State Colin Powell and Treasury Secretary John Snow will travel to Morocco to attend the first meeting of the Forum for the Future in Rabat December 10 and 11. Representatives from the G8 (the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, and Germany) and more than twenty Middle East and North African countries are participating. Democratic reform in the Middle East and North Africa now ranks high on the Transatlantic agenda. And despite sharp differences over Iraq and the Middle East peace process, local democracy advocates want to see democracy triumph.
Yet the road to democracy in the Middle East and North Africa will be long and will require diplomatic patience, political commitment, economic support, and above all coherence. In order for democracy to succeed in the region, no other national or international priority may be allowed to trump it.
—Abdeslam Maghraoui, Associate Director, Muslim World Initiative
Transatlantic Cooperation on Democracy Promotion in the Middle East
U.S. Institute of Peace-FRIDE Workshop
Thursday, November 18, 2004
Key Conclusions: 10 Recommendations for Enhanced Cooperation
On November 18, 2004, the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) co-sponsored a workshop in Brussels devoted to enhancing transatlantic cooperation on Middle East democracy promotion. The workshop assembled 25 American and European policy makers, analysts, and practitioners to brainstorm ideas for how to improve cooperation on promoting reform in the Middle East. The workshop was organized into three principal sessions. The first session, “Taking Stock,” focused on assessing current US-EU approaches and initiatives. The second session, “The Road Not Taken,” explored other strategies and approaches for democracy promotion not being pursued. The final session concentrated on developing concrete policy recommendations on improving cooperation between the US and the EU. The workshop managed to move beyond general discussion of the transatlantic relationship to focus on how to operationalize specific reform oriented strategies. Workshop discussions yielded important recommendations for enhancing transatlantic cooperation on Middle East democracy promotion.
Background:
As both the United States and the European Union intensify their democracy promotion activities in the Middle East, it is clearly desirable to explore ways to enhance transatlantic cooperation. In the wake of the U.S. presidential elections and with the arrival of a new team of European Commissioners, an opportune moment has arrived to review the progress that has been made and assess how best to move forward. The Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative (BMEI) unveiled at the June 2004 G-8 summit marked an important step forward in this regard. Indeed, transatlantic cooperation on Middle East democracy promotion has advanced further than many expected at the June 2004 G-8 Summit.
Important steps have already taken place to improve communication/coordination between the United States and its European allies. For example, under a new agreement, representatives from US and EU missions in the region will meet quarterly to compare notes on the progress of reform, best practices, etc. In addition, a semi-annual dialogue between Washington and Brussels will be initiated to discuss broader policy issues. A series of working level digital video conferences between Washington and Brussels has brought together officials from the EU, State Department and the Agency for International Development to discuss related programs and projects, and information gathering is taking place at the operational level with regard to which groups are being funded by US and EU donors. Arab reform is establishing itself as an agenda item in senior level EU-US meetings.
At the same time, many areas are ripe for enhanced cooperation. While transatlantic communication on Middle East reform has improved, specific details on how to move the reform agenda forward remain vague. Further dialogue between Americans and Europeans on how to promote Middle East democracy in a concrete and realistic way is needed. Specifically, participants identified several areas that merit further exploration. These include: the role of positive conditionality (providing rewards for demonstrable progress on reform), the potential to for an enhanced policy dialogue, and the benefit of sharing analysis and anticipating key areas for future coordination. Indeed, important upcoming milestones (e.g., Palestinian elections (January 2005) and Egyptian elections (November 2005)) in the region might offer key opportunities for greater U.S.-European cooperation.
Key recommendations follow:
- Enhance the policy dialogue. The coordination of strategic objectives and greater cooperation on operational issues are important but not sufficient for improving transatlantic cooperation. The middle ground where strategic and operational issues intersect is critical. As such, the policy dialogue between the U.S. and the E.U. should be further enhanced. An ongoing transatlantic dialogue on policy would provide an important opportunity to discuss complex questions relating to the sequencing of reform processes in the Middle East. It was agreed that the aim of supporting political reform needs to be broken down into more operational issues of concern, assisting clear agreement on what kind of change is actually desired.
- Identify shared interests and objectives. In a related recommendation, participants stressed the need for the US and the EU to identify and prioritize shared goals with respect to Middle East reform. Specifically, a transatlantic policy dialogue should strive to find the countries and areas where both the US and the EU are willing to push reform. Once these areas are identified, the US and EU can at a minimum coordinate diplomatic messages on identified issues. The US and the EU can then monitor these shared areas of interest, tracking the progress of reform and how to improve outcomes. In support of this, the US and EU should exchange analysis of developments in the region. Sharing assessments of the reform process in various countries can assist officials on both sides of the Atlantic by potentially insuring greater harmony in policy responses.
- Coordinate more closely on messages. The US and the EU need to work harder to insure they are “singing off the same sheet of music.” Coordinated messages on elections for example would be far more effective than contradictory messages, which can be played off against one another – as was shown recently in the case of the Tunisian elections. Messages should be delivered separately, but reflect similar content and tone. Upcoming elections in the Palestinian Authority, as well as in Egypt, offer excellent opportunities to work together and insure a unified US and European response to these events.
- Develop more creative reform incentives. Workshop discussions yielded significant transatlantic interest on the potential role of positive conditionality
with respect to promoting democratic reform. However, participants agreed that more thinking needs to be done on devising more creative “carrots.” Positive incentives to induce reform need not only be increases in aid. For example, strategic objectives, such as increased market access or Palestinian statehood, can be leveraged to induce greater movement on democratic reform.
- Synchronize positive conditionality. Beyond devising more creative incentives, the US and the EU should work more closely together to coordinate the offer of those incentives. Essentially, positive movement on reform in the region should be jointly acknowledged, perhaps with incentives that are mutually reinforcing. The timing of such decisions is also crucial. Once shared objectives and the broad outlines of “benchmarks” for measuring success are identified (see above), the US and the EU should coordinate on both the timing and substance of awarding incentives.
- Develop key themes. Coordination could usefully be structured around more concrete thematic challenges. There remains a need for different perceptions of the more detailed elements of reform strategies to be explored. These include: the relationship of good governance and institution-building support to broader political change; the role of political parties, still an issue conspicuously under-addressed in Western strategies; precise ways in which moderate Islamists might be included in EU and US initiatives; and the question of how to promote security sector reform so as to enhance democratic oversight of militaries.
- Identify key upcoming events where US-EU coordination would be useful. Workshop participants underscored the need to identify and coordinate responses to upcoming milestones in the region. Specifically, they pointed to the inaugural meeting of the G-8 Forum for the Future, slated to take place in Morocco on December 11, 2004. G-8 members should work to insure that members of civil society and the business community are included in the meetings with government representatives from the region. Participants also pointed to the Palestinian and Egyptian elections as important events for the US and the EU to coordinate their response. Finally, the Middle East Peace Process would benefit from enhanced US and EU involvement.
- Include practitioners around the table. To date, those who actually implement democratic reform projects are not included regularly in meetings between U.S. and European officials. However, their point of view is extremely valuable and should be part of any regular policy dialogue. Another venue, perhaps roundtable discussions, should be established to allow for continued interactions between European and American policy makers and practitioners.
- Mitigate tensions in trade policies. Concern persists over bilateral trade negotiations with select Arab states undermining efforts to promote democratic change within regional frameworks. Coordination is needed to ensure that the EU’s and US’s respective efforts to deepen trade relations with the region do not undercut the political purchase sought by each actor.
- Confront key challenges facing both sides of the Atlantic. Both the US and the EU face key challenges in trying to improve transatlantic cooperation. The US must contend with a severe credibility gap in the region, impacting its ability to promote reform in the region as well as Europe’s willingness to work closely with the US in the region. Europe, on the other hand, continues to face the challenge of speaking with one voice on reform issues. Often, individual countries will issue their own pronouncements which undermine shared EU and US goals.
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The work of the Muslim World Initiative is being coordinated by Dr. Abdeslam Maghraoui who joined the Institute in September 2004 as Associate Director of the Research and Studies Program. Beyond Dr. Maghraoui, the Institute's expertise on the Muslim World is extensive. Please click here for more information.
