In the Field: Iraq

y contribution this week shall be brief. Instead, I offer below another bonus contribution of the Baghdad Rumor Mill. As the heat continues to ratchet up in Baghdad, we have, so to speak, many irons of our own in the fire. The Baghdad conference for educators to review and discuss plans for implementing the Civic Lesson program was a great success with many great ideas raised on how to deliver the lessons to the city's youth. After several false starts, the project to deliver SENSE training to key members of Iraq's 18 Provincial Councils appears to be back on track and our tribal reconciliation initiative is also making progress despite inevitable hurdles. Nothing comes easily here and, invariably, usually comes together at the last moment. Do be sure to have Rend al-Rahim Francke speak about what she saw, heard and felt during her time in Baghdad.

The highlights of the week were Iraq's twin victories over Vietnam and South Korea in soccer. Iraqis across the country erupted in celebration—rare and precious moments of national pride. Celebrating my own return to the Ultimate Frisbee pitch following recovery from an injury, I found myself and my teammates hunkered down in a shelter, watching as dropping rounds kicked up dust on the playing field. Iraq takes on Saudi Arabia this Sunday, a game I intend to watch, flak jacket and helmet in hand.

The Baghdad Rumor Mill*

Atmospherics*

1. What is the electricity/water status around Baghdad?

Iraqis report that electricity service had worsened this week. This includes reports of two or three day outages in Mansour and Ilam. Hay Urr received two hours of electricity per day this week.

The group reported that water service was the same as last week despite short intermittent shutdowns of service. The water they do receive they DO NOT drink for fear of illness or poisoning.

2. Is there still a fuel crisis in Baghdad?

The group answered that at the stations where action was taken against the black marketing elements in and around these stations, conditions were still good this week. The only problem at these stations is that some of them run out of fuel and the tanker trucks do not arrive until mid-day.

However, the Iraqi government is apparently giving the fuel stations in Mahdi Army controlled areas a pass. Open source reporting states that the fuel stations in Shaab, Binook, and Urr are still controlled by Mahdi Army related black marketing cells, to include the presence of militia members. Because of this, these stations still have long lines as the Bozarchee, sailors, and militia members take care of themselves before the ordinary citizens.

Additionally, the propane supply throughout Baghdad continues to be controlled by the Mahdi Army and can only be purchased on the black market. One tank of propane costs anywhere from 12,500 to 20,000 ID (Iraqi Dinars).

The group reported that Iraqis in Baghdad are paying between 10,000 and 12,500 ID per month for one amp of electricity from their neighborhood generator operators. Most, if not all, of these neighborhood generator operators are paying a monthly "fee" to the Mahdi army.

3. Will the al Maliki government last until the end of the year?

The group unanimously agreed that al Maliki's government will last at least until the end of the year. As to why, one member of the group said that the most important reason is that the al Maliki government will ensure that the new oil law will pass through Parliament, and this new law will benefit the Bush administration and its oil company friends in the U.S.

Another member of the group said that there is no way that a no confidence vote would win in Parliament because of the continued alliance between the Kurdish Coalition and the Shiite Alliance who are pushing for the sectarian partitioning of Iraq for its oil. The Kurds want this partitioning for their eventual independence, and the Shiite Alliance for it proxy partner, Iran.

The group also agreed that the U.S. does not have the political will to unilaterally change the current government because this would eliminate the U.S. administration's only illusory success, the supposed "democratic elections," which have only brought the Iraqi people suffering and pain. According to Iraqis, this corrupt government has done nothing to bring services or security to the Iraqi people.

4. Do Iraqis want a new national election now?

The group believes that overall, the Iraqi people would slightly favor new elections now. The group agreed that all Sunnis would favor new elections. The group also agreed that Kurds could go either way as their position politically would not change much even with new elections, especially as they would still have the linchpin swing votes for any new government. The Kurdish goal would also continue to be their pursuit of Kirkuk as part of their future state.

One unknown element of this question is how the Shiite Religious Authority would react, whether it would stay silent or support a new election. This posturing by the Religious Authority would likely determine whether the Shiite Alliance could retain power in a new election. If the Religious Authority supports a new election, Shiite opponents of the Alliance could claim politically that this sanctioning of a new election can be interpreted that the Alliance failed in governing.

Lastly, the group stated that if such a new election did occur, the only way it will succeed is if the election law is changed to remove the political list system and replace it with a system that elects individuals/parties. This is the only way a secular government can come to power.

Many middle class educated Iraqis have the dream of a new government that would be led by Ayad Allawi, Adnan Al Pachachi, and Abu Sattar Risha.

* The source of the Baghdad Rumor Mill and Atmospherics is The Baghdad Mosquito. The collected views do not necessarily reflect the opinions or impressions of USIP's Baghdad staff.