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In the Field: Iran

USIP experts are more than analysts—they are practitioners that can often be found far outside Washington, D.C. putting conflict resolution methods into practice and aiding in the rebuilding and stabilization of communities that have experienced conflict. This series summarizes recent examples of USIP efforts to resolve conflicts around the world.

Barbara Slavin

Senior Fellow Barbara Slavin has been senior diplomatic reporter for USA Today since 1996. She is currently on leave from the newspaper and focusing her USIP fellowship on her research project, "Iran Rising: Iran and its Clients in the Middle East."

The project examines the rise of Iran’s regional influence in three current conflicts: Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories. Slavin draws on many years of reporting on the Middle East, which includes trips to Iran and other countries, extensive coverage of U.S.-led negotiations between Arabs and Israelis, the Iran-Iraq war, the evolution of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and the resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism, among many other issues.

This month, Slavin is on her seventh trip to Iran, where she interviewed veteran political figure and newly elected member of parliament, Ali Larijani. In a March 12 article, Slavin discusses Iranians' impressions of elections in both their country and the U.S.

 

March 12, 2008

W riting in a special supplement of a reform newspaper, The National Trust, reporter Kaveh Shojaee described John McCain as a courageous Vietnam vet who won the Republican nomination by "remaining determined about subjects he believes in, such as immigration reform, countering global warming and banning torture." Shojaee would prefer a Democrat to win next fall because McCain is old and has threatened to bomb Iran. Still, "no doubt if he (McCain) becomes the American president, the world will witness an America much different from (President) Bush's," Shojaee wrote.

Shojaee described the U.S. election campaign as a "more captivating game" than the upcoming Beijing Olympics. Many Iranians appear as or more interested in the U.S. presidential race than in their own elections on March 14. More than 4,000 candidates are running for the 290-seat parliament. But the campaign is short — only one week — and there is little suspense about the outcome. Widespread disqualification of prominent reformists by a clerical body insures that conservatives will retain a majority. The only question is whether those conservatives will be close supporters of Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or somewhat more critical of the president's failed economic policies and confrontational rhetoric.


photo View a photo gallery from Slavin's trip to Iran.

Elected in 2005, Ahmadinejad has isolated Iran by forecasting Israel's demise and minimizing the Holocaust. At home, his efforts to help the poor by doling out Iran's oil windfall have fueled inflation of more than 20%. Meat costs $5 a pound in a country where the average monthly salary is about $700. Housing prices have doubled in two years, with small Tehran apartments selling for the equivalent of a million dollars. According to Saeed Laylaz, a columnist and former deputy interior minister, the price of gas is about to rise, after the Iranian New Year March 21, to more than $1 a gallon — low by U.S. standards but extremely high for this oil-producing nation.

Pointing to this dire record, reformers close to Ahmadinejad's predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, are urging Iranians to vote. They are fielding about 250 candidates nationwide and are hoping to win at least 50 seats.

"If we can get 50 seats, we can have a voice in the parliament and set the stage for presidential elections" next year, Mohammad Jamshidi Gohary, a reform candidate, told a small rally in Tehran last weekend. Winning seats, particularly in the provinces, would boost reformers' chances in the presidential elections by making it easier to rent headquarters and distribute campaign literature.

The argument resonates with some Iranians. Hadi Nili, a journalist, says he will go to the polls to send a message to the Iranian government that "we want the right to vote for people we like."

Slavin next to poster of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini at press conference held by Iranian conservative candidates.
Slavin next to poster of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini at press conference held by Iranian conservative candidates.

Many other Iranians appear to see the elections as a closed game among regime supporters. The conservatives have splintered into at least three factions — all of whom call themselves "principalists." The overall effect is like that of the old Monty Python skit featuring the sensible party, the silly party and the very silly party. "We don't care about them," said one Iranian businesswoman. "They live their lives; we live ours."

An Iranian lawyer who also chose to remain nameless said he has voted just once: — in 1997 for Khatami. "I was deceived into participating then but that won't happen again," he said.

Meanwhile Iranians eagerly consume news about McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and speculate which would try hardest to restore relations with Iran, broken nearly three decades ago. Mohammad Atrianfar, publisher of many reform newspapers and magazines, said he prefers Clinton because he fondly remembers her husband's "soft words to Iran." Hillary Clinton also behaved well during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Atrianfar says. "Her logic and wisdom overcame her emotions."

Shojaee says the U.S. campaign is projecting a positive impression of America: "After the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Americans were losing their reputation but this election is changing the world's view of the United States."

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