Intelligence and the Prevention of Conflict: The NIE Process and Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

The recent release of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear capabilities and intentions has stirred unprecedented public debate and controversy about the relations between policy and intelligence in conflict situations, in particular on how to bring intelligence findings to the forefront of national policy debate on a crucial foreign policy issue.

Since its release, the Iran NIE has been used to support wildly opposing policy choices. However, often overlooked in this debate are a broader examination of the NIE process itself and a deeper understanding of its role in shaping policy and preventing violent conflict.

To better address these issues, USIP is convening a roundtable panel of experts to discuss the process and role of the NIE in assessing nuclear capabilities and intentions. This roundtable will unite academic historical expertise with professional experience in the intelligence community.

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