India

The United States is planning its withdrawal from Afghanistan as the country faces three interrelated challenges: a weak national state, rising Islamic radicalism based in Pakistan’s tribal belt, and zero-sum regional politics. The stage is set for a balance-of-power contest between India and Pakistan played out in Afghanistan that could fuel another civil war in the country. This report details the nature of the tension between India and Pakistan over Afghanistan and outlines steps that the U.S. government can take to avoid another conflict there.

Among regional actors, Pakistan is always highlighted as the most critical player in a sustainable peace in Afghanistan, yet prolonged tensions in the Pakistan-U.S. relationship and Pakistan’s worries about India’s role in Afghanistan make this a challenging issue to resolve. On May 18, USIP hosted a debate among eminent South Asia experts on Pakistani and Indian interests and strategies toward Afghanistan. The participants focused on how Islamabad and New Delhi are viewing developments in Afghanistan, the state of the Pakistan-India relationship, the impact of Pakistan-U.S. tensions on regional strategic outlooks, and how political changes within Pakistan and India may affect their strategies.