Russian Federation

Democratic Breakthroughs: The Ingredients of Successful Revolts

Although each revolution is different, each successful case of democratic breakthrough shares common domestic and international influences. This report examines 11 cases of past successes at removing autocratic regimes and establishing elections. It then applies its findings to the emerging revolutions of the Arab Spring.

Ray Salvatore Jennings

Summary

  • The cases of successful breakthrough examined in this study are the Soviet Union in 1991 and Russia in 1993, Poland in 1989, Serbia in 2000, Ukraine in 2004, Indonesia by 1999, Chile in 1988, and South Africa by 1996. Cases of failed and then ultimately successful democratic transition are Ghana by 2000, Mexico by 2000, South Korea by 1987, and Turkey by 1983. Finally, the cases of failed transition examined are Algeria in 1991, Iran in 1979, China in 1989, and Azerbaijan in 2005.
Fri, 07/27/2012 - 10:03
Type of Article: 

Rewiring Regional Security in a Fragmented World

Rewiring Regional Security in a Fragmented World examines conflict management capacities and gaps regionally and globally, and assesses whether regions—through their regional organizations or through loose coalitions of states, regional bodies, and non-official actors—are able to address an array of new and emerging security threats.

Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, editors
Sun, 07/31/2011 - 14:37

Tensions with Iran

As tensions between Iran and Israel heat up, and with the announcement that world powers will resume nuclear talks with Iran, USIP’s Dan Brumberg assesses the latest state of play, and whether the use of force is inevitable.

As tensions between Iran and Israel heat up, and with the announcement that world powers will resume nuclear talks with Iran, USIP’s Dan Brumberg assesses the latest state of play.

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:39
Type of Article: 

Science Diplomacy for Nuclear Security

Nuclear security expert Micah Lowenthal calls on science diplomacy, which played a key role in promoting U.S.-Soviet cooperation, to renewed engagement on current issues: nonproliferation, countering nuclear terrorism, verification of nuclear treaties, and ballistic missile defense.

Summary

  • The history of science diplomacy for nuclear security is rich and includes, for example, establishing confidence in the verifiability of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, paving the way to many nonproliferation efforts, and damping potentially drastic responses to actions perceived by adversaries as provocative.
  • The ingredients for success in science diplomacy may be summarized in terms of seven factors: openness to new possibilities, vision and leadership, good science, human connections, communication, time, and self-interest.
Micah D. Lowenthal
Mon, 09/26/2011 - 20:28
Type of Article: 

Nuclear Arms Control: An In-Depth Look at its Role in Security

This course provides students and practitioners with a balanced, in-depth look at the objectives and evolution of strategic arms control, challenges and potential avenues for a New START follow-on, and other related issues, including implications for U.S. nuclear policy, deterrence and extended deterrence, missile defense, strategic conventional strike, space- and cyber-security, and the nuclear zero issue.  Simulations and small group discussions further enhance the learning experience.
 

Nuclear issues permeate many facets of contemporary international relations, U.S. foreign policy, and regional studies.  While the threat of a large-scale nuclear exchange decreased significantly with the end of the Cold war, the challenges of strategic stability and deterrence remain prominent in an increasingly complex and globalized world.

Type of Event or Course: 

On the Issues: Iran and P5+1 Talks

USIP expert Dan Brumberg previews the upcoming talks with Iran and provides background on the current situation.

January 18, 2011

USIP expert Dan Brumberg previews the upcoming P5 +1 talks with Iran and provides background on the current situation.

Dan Brumberg
Tue, 01/18/2011 - 12:23
Type of Article: 

Reykjavik to New START

Wed, 01/19/2011 - 08:30
Wed, 01/19/2011 - 16:45
Public Event

As we approach the 25th anniversary of the Reykjavik Summit the National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) and the USIP Center of Innovation: Science, Technology & Peacebuilding held a symposium on science and diplomacy in support of international security to examine the roles of transparency and confidence building in 21st Century nuclear security.

8:00am - 8:30am | Registration

8:30am - 8:40am | Welcome

  • Raymond Jeanloz, Introduction
    UC Berkeley and Chair, NAS CISAC
  • E. William Colglazier
    Executive Officer, NAS
  • Richard H. Solomon
    President, U.S. Institute of Peace

8:45am - 9:30am | Reflections on Reykjavik and its Implications for the Future
Introduction of Speaker, Amb. Richard Solomon, U.S Institute of Peace

  • Richard H. Solomon, Introduction
    President, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • The Honorable William Perry
    Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor Emeritus
    The Hoover Institution and Stanford University

9:30am - 11:00am | Panel I: Technical Confidence Building to Support International Security: Lessons Learned From Confidence-Building and Arms Control Verification Experiments

  • Christopher Chyba, Moderator 
    Professor of Astrophysical Sciences and International Affairs
    Princeton University

The Black Sea Experiment

  • Thomas Cochran 
    Senior Scientist, Nuclear Program
    Natural Resources Defense Council
  • Viktor Firsov
    All-Russian Research Institute of Automatics
  • Roald Sagdeev
    Distinguished University Professor, Department of Physics
    University of Maryland

Joint Verification Experiments (JVE) in 1988

  • Paul Robinson
    Director (ret.)
    Sandia National Laboratory 
  • Evgeny Avrorin
    Scientific Director Emeritus of the Zababakhin Russian Federal Nuclear Center (ret.)
    All-Russian Institute of Technical Physics 
     

11:00am - 11:15am | Break

11:15am - 11:45am | The Role of Scientists in Building Confidence in Past, Current, and Future Arms Reductions Treaties

  • Raymond Jeanloz, Introduction
    Chair, NAS CISAC
  • The Honorable Rose Gottemoeller, Featured Speaker
    Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance
    U.S. Department of State

12:00pm - 1:00pm | Lunchtime Speaker

  • Thomas P. D’Agostino
    Under Secretary for Nuclear Security & Administrator
    National Nuclear Security Administration

1:00pm - 1:45pm | A Military Perspective on the Value of Science Diplomacy

  • Raymond Jeanloz, Introduction
    Chair, NAS CISAC
  • Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin (ret.), Featured Speaker
    First Vice-President of Russian Federation Academy of Security, Defence, and Law Enforcement (ret.)

1:45pm - 3:00pm | Panel II: Scientists’ Role in Enhancing Communication and Confidence between and among Countries

  • Cathleen Campbell, Moderator
    President and Chief Executive Officer
    Civilian Research and Defense Fund

The Role of U.S.-Soviet/Russian NGO Dialogues and Possible Directions for the Future

  • Richard Garwin
    IBM Fellow Emeritus
    IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
  • Evgeniy Avrorin
    All-Russian Institute of Technical Physics (ret.)

Disposition of Excess Weapons Fissile Material

  • Nikolai N. Ponomarev-Stepnoi
    Deputy Director Emeritus
    Kurchatov Institute
  • John F. Ahearne
    Director of the Ethics Program
    Sigma Xi

3:00-3:15 Break

3:15-4:30 Panel III: Assessing Other Opportunities beyond the Bilateral U.S.-Russia Relationship  

  • Sheldon Himelfarb, Moderator
    Associate Vice President, Center of Innovation for Science, Technology, and Peacebuilding
    U.S. Institute of Peace

Use of Open-Source Imaging

  • David Albright 
    President and Founder
    Institute for Science and International Security

On Science Diplomacy and India

  • Norman Neureiter
    Director
    AAAS Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy

On Science Diplomacy for Security in South Asia

  • Stephen Cohen
    Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative
    The Brookings Institution

4:30pm - 4:45pm | Concluding Remarks

  • Christopher Chyba
    Professor of Astrophysical Sciences and International Affairs
    Princeton University
  • Evgeniy Avrorin
    Scientific Director Emeritus of the Zababakhin Russian Federal Nuclear Center (ret.)

    All-Russian Institute of Technical Physics 

 

The National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) and the USIP Center of Innovation: Science, Technology & Peacebuilding held a symposium on science and diplomacy in support of international security.

Please note the location of this event:

The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth St., NW
Washington, D.C. 20001

Inquiries

If you have any questions about this event or your registration, please contact Anand Varghese at avarghese1@usip.org.

  • National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC)
Countries: 
Type of Event or Course: 

New START Debate Spotlights Strategic Posture Commission Guidance

With the U.S. Senate’s ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the United States and Russia now await the Russian parliament’s likely ratification to make important reductions in their strategic nuclear arsenals.  Throughout debate, senators on both sides of the aisle cited the findings and recommendations of the 2009 Strategic Posture Commission, chaired by former secretaries of defense William Perry and James Schlesinger.

With the U.S. Senate’s ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the United States and Russia now await the Russian parliament’s likely ratification to make important reductions in their strategic nuclear arsenals.

Brian Rose
Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:00
Type of Article: 
Countries: 

Mapping the Russian Blogosphere

At a USIP public event held on October 19, 2010, researchers presented a mapping conducted by Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society and Morningside Analytics. The event was part of USIP’s ongoing Blogs and Bullets initiative. This Peace Brief summarizes the methodology and findings of the Berkman Center/Morningside Analytics researchers and the panel discussion that followed.

Anand Varghese

Summary

  • Analysis of more than 11,000 Russian-language blogs reveals an active political blogosphere comprising internationally linking bloggers; Russian media-focused bloggers; nationalists; members of the democratic opposition; bloggers focused on business, economics, and finance; and social and environmental activists.
  • Russian bloggers tend to be less politically polarized than their counterparts in the American blogosphere, and they prefer to blog about political issues from a nonpartisan position.
Tue, 12/21/2010 - 12:15
Type of Article: 

Faint Progress in Geneva?

Daniel Brumberg, Senior Adviser at USIP's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, offers analysis on the "Iran-P5+1" talks held in Geneva, Switzerland on December 6-7, 2010.

It might be said that when it comes to the interminable effort to resolve the conflict over Iran’s nuclear program, the good news is that the December 6-7, “Iran-P5+1” talks in Geneva even took place. Framed by the low expectations that all participants shared going into the talks, the one decision to come out of this meeting, namely to hold a second round of negotiations in January, represents faint but modest progress.

Daniel Brumberg
Thu, 12/16/2010 - 11:44
Type of Article: 

Articles & Analysis

March 8, 2012

As tensions between Iran and Israel heat up, and with the announcement that world powers will resume nuclear talks with Iran, USIP’s Dan Brumberg assesses the latest state of play, and whether the use of force is inevitable.

Our Work in the Field

Working in partnership with the Tbilisi-based Internally Displaced Women´s Association (IDPWA), USIP Professional Training Program officers Anne Henderson and Mike Lekson conducted a four-day conflict management workshop. The workshop´s main goal...

Learn More

Classroom Courses

Instructor:
Bruce MacDonald

This course provides students and practitioners with a balanced, in-depth look at the objectives and evolution of strategic arms control, challenges and potential avenues for a New START follow-on, and other related issues, including implications for U.S. nuclear policy, deterrence and extended deterrence, missile defense, strategic conventional strike, space- and cyber-security, and the nuclear zero issue.  Simulations and small group discussions further enhance the learning experience.
 

Nuclear issues permeate many facets of contemporary international relations, U.S.

Publications

By:
Ray Salvatore Jennings
Although each revolution is different, each successful case of democratic breakthrough shares common domestic and international influences. This report examines 11 cases of past successes at removing autocratic regimes and establishing elections. It then applies its findings to the emerging revolutions of the Arab Spring.
Rewiring Regional Security in a Fragmented World examines conflict management capacities and gaps regionally and globally, and assesses whether regions—through their regional organizations or through loose coalitions of states, regional bodies, and non-official actors—are able to address an array of new and emerging security threats.